Closing spread
IND -4
Total
39
Model margin
+3.3est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play+0.114
- 40.6%Success rate48.1%
- -0.007EPA / dropback+0.230
- -0.027EPA / rush-0.087
- 7.9%Explosive rate6.4%
- -0.33CPOE+4.76
- 41.3%Third-down rate50.8%
- 50.4%Red-zone TD rate68.4%
- 1.61Points / drive2.14
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 10–7 since 1999
Meetings average 39.8 points. IND are 12-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 14:09 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 12:55 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 11:19 | 4 | 79 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| BAL | Q1 9:43 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| IND | Q1 7:38 | 10 | 61 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| BAL | Q1 2:43 | 2 | 8 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| IND | Q1 1:51 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 0–17 |
| BAL | Q1 0:38 | 12 | 21 | Punt | 0–17 |
| IND | Q2 10:28 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 0–17 |
| BAL | Q2 8:23 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| IND | Q2 7:35 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 0–17 |
| BAL | Q2 5:49 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–17 |
| IND | Q2 3:46 | 5 | 52 | Touchdown | 0–24 |
| BAL | Q2 1:48 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–24 |
| IND | Q2 0:56 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–24 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–31 |
| BAL | Q3 9:25 | 14 | 62 | Field goal | 3–31 |
| IND | Q3 1:15 | 10 | 30 | Punt | 3–31 |
| BAL | Q4 9:37 | 4 | 34 | Turnover | 3–31 |
| IND | Q4 7:49 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–31 |
| BAL | Q4 5:24 | 6 | 35 | Turnover | 3–31 |
| IND | Q4 4:05 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 3–31 |
| BAL | Q4 2:22 | 8 | 80 | End of half | 3–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 28/38 | 241 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 19/28 | 271 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Rhodes | 25 | 73 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Joseph Addai | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Mike Hart | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.81
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.30