2008 · Week 6

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

3·31

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

Lucas Oil Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -4

Total

39

Model margin

+3.3est.

IND perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapColts
  • -0.018EPA / play+0.114
  • 40.6%Success rate48.1%
  • -0.007EPA / dropback+0.230
  • -0.027EPA / rush-0.087
  • 7.9%Explosive rate6.4%
  • -0.33CPOE+4.76
  • 41.3%Third-down rate50.8%
  • 50.4%Red-zone TD rate68.4%
  • 1.61Points / drive2.14
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 10–7 since 1999

Meetings average 39.8 points. IND are 12-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1BAL @ IND41–23BAL
2023 · W3IND @ BAL22–19IND
2021 · W5IND @ BAL25–31BAL
2020 · W9BAL @ IND24–10BAL
2017 · W16IND @ BAL16–23BAL
2014 · W5BAL @ IND13–20IND
2012 · playoffsIND @ BAL9–24BAL
2011 · W14IND @ BAL10–24BAL

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco28/3824103

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice6233.80
Willis McGahee8182.30
Joe Flacco3124.00

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning19/2827130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dominic Rhodes25732.91
Joseph Addai231.50
Mike Hart122.00
Peyton Manning2-2-1.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.9%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.81
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.30