2008 · Week 6 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
TB -1
Total
37
Model margin
+1.9est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.066EPA / play-0.033
- 42.5%Success rate43.2%
- +0.073EPA / dropback+0.028
- +0.059EPA / rush-0.126
- 11.3%Explosive rate7.5%
- -1.27CPOE+1.84
- 40.0%Third-down rate38.9%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 1.98Points / drive1.55
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–24 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. TB are 22-27 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 17 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q1 12:25 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–7 |
| TB | Q1 10:35 | 8 | 57 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q1 6:00 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| TB | Q1 5:03 | 5 | 21 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| CAR | Q1 2:40 | 9 | 70 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| TB | Q2 12:31 | 7 | 52 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| CAR | Q2 8:58 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–17 |
| TB | Q2 7:14 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–17 |
| CAR | Q2 5:38 | 10 | 60 | Turnover | 3–17 |
| TB | Q2 1:10 | 4 | 31 | Missed field goal | 3–17 |
| CAR | Q2 0:09 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–17 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 3–17 |
| CAR | Q3 10:35 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–17 |
| TB | Q3 8:09 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 3–20 |
| CAR | Q3 6:03 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–20 |
| TB | Q3 4:58 | 10 | 56 | Touchdown | 3–27 |
| CAR | Q4 14:11 | 3 | 35 | Turnover | 3–27 |
| TB | Q4 13:20 | 9 | 52 | Punt | 3–27 |
| CAR | Q4 7:15 | 8 | 46 | Turnover on downs | 3–27 |
| TB | Q4 5:20 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 3–27 |
| CAR | Q4 2:46 | 10 | 42 | Turnover on downs | 3–27 |
| TB | Q4 0:37 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 20/39 | 242 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 11 | 27 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 15/20 | 173 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 22 | 115 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Jeff Garcia | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Luke McCown | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.54
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.95