2008 · Week 6 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
TB -1
Total
37
Model margin
+1.9est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.066EPA / play-0.033
- 42.5%Success rate43.2%
- +0.073EPA / dropback+0.028
- +0.059EPA / rush-0.126
- 11.3%Explosive rate7.5%
- -1.27CPOE+1.84
- 40.0%Third-down rate38.9%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 1.98Points / drive1.55
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. TB are 21-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 20/39 | 242 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 11 | 27 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 15/20 | 173 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 22 | 115 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Jeff Garcia | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Luke McCown | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.54
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.95