2023 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

18·21

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

TB -4

Total

37

Model margin

+5.0est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.160EPA / play+0.008
  • 38.2%Success rate40.5%
  • -0.163EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.155EPA / rush-0.166
  • 6.3%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -1.80CPOE+0.25
  • 34.8%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 42.3%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
  • 1.00Points / drive1.86
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–24 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. TB are 22-27 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7TB @ CAR43–13TB
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB
2022 · W7TB @ CAR3–21CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–TB
TBQ1 15:00934Punt0–0
CARQ1 10:3130Punt0–0
TBQ1 9:34955Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 6:081370Field goal3–7
TBQ2 13:3036Punt3–7
CARQ2 12:0937Punt3–7
TBQ2 10:0932Punt3–7
CARQ2 9:07511Punt3–7
TBQ2 5:50622Turnover3–7
CARQ2 2:2239Punt3–7
TBQ2 1:41523Punt3–7
CARQ2 0:53733Turnover on downs3–7
CARQ3 15:003-1Punt3–7
TBQ3 13:2731Punt3–7
CARQ3 12:3034Punt3–7
TBQ3 10:103-4Punt3–7
CARQ3 8:40765Touchdown10–7
TBQ3 5:04175Touchdown10–14
CARQ3 4:5430Punt10–14
TBQ3 4:363-1Punt10–14
CARQ3 3:1953Punt10–14
TBQ3 0:41862Touchdown10–21
CARQ4 11:361272Touchdown18–21
TBQ4 5:02410Punt18–21
CARQ4 3:3149Turnover18–21
TBQ4 2:14339End of half18–21

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young15/3117801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard251044.22
Miles Sanders8232.90
Raheem Blackshear166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jonathan Mingo610690
DJ Chark34560
Adam Thielen36250
Stephen Sullivan12160
Ian Thomas1160
Miles Sanders1260
Mike Strachan0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield14/2920211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rachaad White20844.21
Chris Godwin Jr.11919.01
Trey Palmer11313.00
Chase Edmonds273.50
Deven Thompkins273.50
Baker Mayfield2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans7121621
Rachaad White35220
Trey Palmer25120
Deven Thompkins1140
Chase Edmonds1120
Chris Godwin Jr.0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.3%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.27
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.97