2023 · Week 13 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
TB -4
Total
37
Model margin
+5.0est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.160EPA / play+0.008
- 38.2%Success rate40.5%
- -0.163EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.155EPA / rush-0.166
- 6.3%Explosive rate8.6%
- -1.80CPOE+0.25
- 34.8%Third-down rate42.2%
- 42.3%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 1.00Points / drive1.86
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. TB are 21-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 15/31 | 178 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 25 | 104 | 4.2 | 2 |
| Miles Sanders | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Mingo | 6 | 10 | 69 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 3 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Stephen Sullivan | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Mike Strachan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 14/29 | 202 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 20 | 84 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 1 |
| Trey Palmer | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Deven Thompkins | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 7 | 12 | 162 | 1 |
| Rachaad White | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Trey Palmer | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Deven Thompkins | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.3%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.27
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.97