2023 · Week 18 · Division
Final
Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 19mph
Closing spread
TB -5
Total
36.5
Model margin
-1.6est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play-0.160
- 40.5%Success rate38.2%
- +0.110EPA / dropback-0.163
- -0.166EPA / rush-0.155
- 8.6%Explosive rate6.3%
- +0.25CPOE-1.80
- 42.2%Third-down rate34.8%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate42.3%
- 1.86Points / drive1.00
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. CAR are 27-21 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 20/32 | 137 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 19 | 75 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 6 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 3 | 8 | 22 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 4 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Trey Palmer | 2 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| David Moore | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Deven Thompkins | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 11/18 | 94 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 23 | 83 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Chark | 2 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Ihmir Smith-Marsette | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Stephen Sullivan | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.9%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.27
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.56