2023 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

9·0

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 19mph

Closing spread

TB -5

Total

36.5

Model margin

-1.6est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapPanthers
  • +0.008EPA / play-0.160
  • 40.5%Success rate38.2%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback-0.163
  • -0.166EPA / rush-0.155
  • 8.6%Explosive rate6.3%
  • +0.25CPOE-1.80
  • 42.2%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 55.7%Red-zone TD rate42.3%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.00
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–24 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. CAR are 27-22 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7TB @ CAR43–13TB
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB
2022 · W7TB @ CAR3–21CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–CAR
TBQ1 15:00828Punt0–0
CARQ1 11:40510Punt0–0
TBQ1 8:50517Punt0–0
CARQ1 5:41517Punt0–0
TBQ1 2:3469Punt0–0
CARQ1 0:07664Turnover0–0
TBQ2 12:1837Punt0–0
CARQ2 10:4838Punt0–0
TBQ2 9:13753Field goal3–0
CARQ2 4:1337Punt3–0
TBQ2 2:1330Punt3–0
CARQ2 1:5231Punt3–0
TBQ2 1:11817Field goal6–0
CARQ3 15:00834Punt6–0
TBQ3 9:20516Punt6–0
CARQ3 5:551020Missed field goal6–0
TBQ4 15:00837Field goal9–0
CARQ4 10:18938Turnover9–0
TBQ4 6:19946End of half9–0

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield20/3213700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rachaad White19753.90
Chase Edmonds4276.80
Baker Mayfield571.40
Chris Godwin Jr.144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Godwin Jr.67510
Cade Otton23300
Mike Evans38220
Rachaad White44180
Trey Palmer26100
David Moore1180
Deven Thompkins1110
Chase Edmonds11-30

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young11/189400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard23833.60
Bryce Young22412.00
Miles Sanders3186.00
Raheem Blackshear166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Chark24460
Adam Thielen23120
Tommy Tremble22110
Chuba Hubbard2290
Ihmir Smith-Marsette1260
Ian Thomas1250
Terrace Marshall Jr.1150
Stephen Sullivan0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

1.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.9%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.27
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.56