2024 · Week 17 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
TB -9.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+7.2est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play+0.133
- 41.8%Success rate49.4%
- -0.041EPA / dropback+0.211
- -0.040EPA / rush+0.012
- 7.5%Explosive rate10.2%
- +0.06CPOE+3.56
- 36.3%Third-down rate50.8%
- 63.0%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
- 1.88Points / drive2.71
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. TB are 21-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 15/28 | 203 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Blackshear | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Velus Jones Jr. | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 5 | 6 | 110 | 2 |
| Jalen Coker | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Xavier Legette | 5 | 9 | 28 | 0 |
| David Moore | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Dan Chisena | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 27/32 | 359 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 20 | 113 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Sean Tucker | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kameron Johnson | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Jalen McMillan | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Trask | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 8 | 9 | 97 | 2 |
| Bucky Irving | 4 | 4 | 77 | 0 |
| Devin Culp | 3 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Jalen McMillan | 5 | 5 | 51 | 2 |
| Payne Durham | 2 | 3 | 36 | 1 |
| Ryan Miller | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Rakim Jarrett | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Sean Tucker | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
3.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.9%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.49
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.19