2024 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

14·48

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

TB -9.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+7.2est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.040EPA / play+0.133
  • 41.8%Success rate49.4%
  • -0.041EPA / dropback+0.211
  • -0.040EPA / rush+0.012
  • 7.5%Explosive rate10.2%
  • +0.06CPOE+3.56
  • 36.3%Third-down rate50.8%
  • 63.0%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
  • 1.88Points / drive2.71
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–24 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. TB are 22-27 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7TB @ CAR43–13TB
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB
2022 · W7TB @ CAR3–21CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–TB
TBQ1 15:00670Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 11:35670Touchdown7–7
TBQ1 8:151175Field goal7–10
CARQ1 1:133-9Punt7–10
TBQ2 14:51940Field goal7–13
CARQ2 10:3130Punt7–13
TBQ2 10:09481Touchdown7–20
CARQ2 8:1933Punt7–20
TBQ2 6:491259Touchdown7–27
CARQ2 1:11455Touchdown14–27
TBQ2 0:50312Punt14–27
CARQ2 0:20436Missed field goal14–27
CARQ3 15:00512Punt14–27
TBQ3 11:381199Touchdown14–34
CARQ3 5:4830Opp touchdown14–41
CARQ3 5:23514Punt14–41
TBQ3 3:331080Touchdown14–48
CARQ4 13:301123Turnover on downs14–48
TBQ4 7:33837End of half14–48

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young15/2820320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Blackshear8202.50
Mike Boone2115.50
Bryce Young284.00
Velus Jones Jr.100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen561102
Jalen Coker22350
Xavier Legette59280
David Moore11170
Dan Chisena1180
Ja'Tavion Sanders1150
Mike Boone0200

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield27/3235950

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bucky Irving201135.70
Sean Tucker8394.90
Rachaad White6305.00
Kameron Johnson11111.00
Jalen McMillan199.00
Baker Mayfield122.00
Kyle Trask3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans89972
Bucky Irving44770
Devin Culp34520
Jalen McMillan55512
Payne Durham23361
Ryan Miller24260
Rakim Jarrett11110
Sean Tucker1150
Rachaad White1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.55.8%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

3.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.9%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.49
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.19