2024 · Week 13 · Division
Final / OT
Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
TB -6.5
Total
46
Model margin
-4.0est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.133EPA / play-0.040
- 49.4%Success rate41.8%
- +0.211EPA / dropback-0.041
- +0.012EPA / rush-0.040
- 10.2%Explosive rate7.5%
- +3.56CPOE+0.06
- 50.8%Third-down rate36.3%
- 71.2%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
- 2.71Points / drive1.88
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. CAR are 27-21 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 21/33 | 235 | 1 | 2 |
| Kyle Trask | 1/1 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 25 | 152 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Rachaad White | 11 | 76 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 8 | 12 | 118 | 1 |
| Sterling Shepard | 4 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Jalen McMillan | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 4 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Trey Palmer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 26/46 | 298 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jonathon Brooks | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 8 | 10 | 99 | 1 |
| Tommy Tremble | 5 | 8 | 77 | 0 |
| Xavier Legette | 4 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| David Moore | 5 | 9 | 40 | 0 |
| Jonathon Brooks | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Dan Chisena | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Stephen Sullivan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Feleipe Franks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.3%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.49
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.27
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.05