2024 · Week 13 · Division

Final / OT

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

26·23

Panthers

Carolina

QB Andy Dalton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

TB -6.5

Total

46

Model margin

-4.0est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapPanthers
  • +0.133EPA / play-0.040
  • 49.4%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.211EPA / dropback-0.041
  • +0.012EPA / rush-0.040
  • 10.2%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +3.56CPOE+0.06
  • 50.8%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 71.2%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
  • 2.71Points / drive1.88
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–24 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. CAR are 27-22 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7TB @ CAR43–13TB
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB
2022 · W7TB @ CAR3–21CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–CAR
CARQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
TBQ1 14:0636Punt0–0
CARQ1 12:3339Punt0–0
TBQ1 10:351360Touchdown7–0
CARQ1 4:29641Field goal7–3
TBQ1 0:4831Punt7–3
CARQ2 14:51857Missed field goal7–3
TBQ2 11:394-4Punt7–3
CARQ2 9:42427Touchdown7–10
TBQ2 7:45871Field goal10–10
CARQ2 3:39633Missed field goal10–10
TBQ2 1:41412Turnover10–10
CARQ2 0:43849Field goal10–13
TBQ2 0:0500End of half10–13
TBQ3 15:00416Punt10–13
CARQ3 12:30739Punt10–13
TBQ3 9:31514Punt10–13
CARQ3 6:2736Punt10–13
TBQ3 5:3239Turnover10–13
CARQ3 4:08616Field goal10–16
TBQ3 0:191169Touchdown17–16
CARQ4 8:5330Punt17–16
TBQ4 7:18867Field goal20–16
CARQ4 3:05960Touchdown20–23
TBQ4 0:30536Field goal23–23
TBOT529Missed field goal23–23
CAROT425Turnover23–23
TBOT361Field goal26–23

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield21/3323512
Kyle Trask1/1500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bucky Irving251526.11
Rachaad White11766.90
Baker Mayfield382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans8121181
Sterling Shepard47420
Bucky Irving33330
Jalen McMillan23250
Cade Otton47200
Rachaad White1120
Trey Palmer0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young26/4629810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard12433.60
Jonathon Brooks6183.00
Bryce Young3175.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen810991
Tommy Tremble58770
Xavier Legette48530
David Moore59400
Jonathon Brooks33230
Dan Chisena1160
Stephen Sullivan0100
Feleipe Franks0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.9%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.7%3.7%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

3.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

38.3%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.49
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.27
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-4.05