2025 · Week 18 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 11mph
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.025EPA / play+0.006
- 43.7%Success rate43.3%
- +0.007EPA / dropback+0.064
- -0.072EPA / rush-0.087
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.4%
- +1.44CPOE-2.55
- 35.7%Third-down rate41.0%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.80Points / drive1.89
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. TB are 21-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 24/35 | 266 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 7 | 10 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan | 4 | 6 | 85 | 0 |
| Jalen Coker | 6 | 7 | 47 | 1 |
| Tommy Tremble | 3 | 4 | 38 | 1 |
| Brycen Tremayne | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Xavier Legette | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Mitchell Evans | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 16/22 | 203 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 26 | 85 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tez Johnson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Sean Tucker | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Otton | 7 | 9 | 94 | 1 |
| Mike Evans | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Tez Johnson | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Jalen McMillan | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Payne Durham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.58
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.28