2025 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

14·16

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

TB -3

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.3est.

TB perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.025EPA / play+0.006
  • 43.7%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.007EPA / dropback+0.064
  • -0.072EPA / rush-0.087
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +1.44CPOE-2.55
  • 35.7%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 1.80Points / drive1.89
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–24 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. TB are 22-27 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7TB @ CAR43–13TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB
2022 · W7TB @ CAR3–21CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–TB
TBQ1 15:00974Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 9:3140Punt0–7
TBQ1 7:241056Field goal0–10
CARQ1 1:57427Punt0–10
TBQ2 14:48617Turnover0–10
CARQ2 12:18319Touchdown7–10
TBQ2 10:50929Punt7–10
CARQ2 4:21635Turnover7–10
TBQ2 1:51640Field goal7–13
CARQ2 0:0200End of half7–13
CARQ3 15:00936Missed field goal7–13
TBQ3 10:2738Punt7–13
CARQ3 8:08720Punt7–13
TBQ3 4:30926Field goal7–16
CARQ4 14:12645Turnover7–16
TBQ4 11:07956Missed field goal7–16
CARQ4 5:12872Touchdown14–16
TBQ4 2:27632Punt14–16
CARQ4 0:18232Turnover14–16

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young24/3526621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rico Dowdle7101.40
Chuba Hubbard5102.00
Bryce Young2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tetairoa McMillan46850
Jalen Coker67471
Tommy Tremble34381
Brycen Tremayne22270
Xavier Legette34220
Rico Dowdle22200
Jimmy Horn Jr.11150
Chuba Hubbard2270
Mitchell Evans1250

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield16/2220311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bucky Irving26853.30
Baker Mayfield4317.80
Rachaad White7233.30
Tez Johnson155.00
Sean Tucker4-4-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cade Otton79941
Mike Evans22340
Rachaad White22180
Tez Johnson11170
Bucky Irving12130
Jalen McMillan11110
Chris Godwin Jr.1180
Emeka Egbuka1380
Payne Durham0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.9%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.58
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.28