2022 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Sam Darnold

24·30

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

TB -3.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+2.1est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.036EPA / play-0.030
  • 40.8%Success rate44.0%
  • -0.062EPA / dropback+0.052
  • -0.005EPA / rush-0.208
  • 9.4%Explosive rate6.5%
  • -4.71CPOE+0.30
  • 31.6%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
  • 1.70Points / drive1.63
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–24 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. TB are 22-27 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7TB @ CAR43–13TB
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W7TB @ CAR3–21CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–TB
CARQ1 15:00769Touchdown7–0
TBQ1 11:39746Turnover7–0
CARQ1 9:0639Punt7–0
TBQ1 7:05418Punt7–0
CARQ1 4:2330Punt7–0
TBQ1 3:211346Missed field goal7–0
CARQ2 12:00857Touchdown14–0
TBQ2 7:5142Punt14–0
CARQ2 5:3439Punt14–0
TBQ2 3:02480Touchdown14–7
CARQ2 2:1022Turnover14–7
TBQ2 1:5739Field goal14–10
CARQ2 1:094-8Turnover on downs14–10
TBQ3 15:00512Punt14–10
CARQ3 12:54543Turnover14–10
TBQ3 10:491490Missed field goal14–10
CARQ3 3:37996Touchdown21–10
TBQ4 14:50461Touchdown21–16
CARQ4 13:49617Punt21–16
TBQ4 9:53892Touchdown21–24
CARQ4 6:4736Punt21–24
TBQ4 5:45611Punt21–24
CARQ4 2:321-7Turnover21–24
TBQ4 2:2426Touchdown21–30
CARQ4 1:58744Field goal24–30
TBQ4 0:5935Punt24–30
CARQ4 0:26363End of half24–30

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold23/3734131

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Onta Foreman13352.70
Sam Darnold5204.00
Chuba Hubbard3124.00
Laviska Shenault Jr.177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore6101171
Shi Smith44701
Chuba Hubbard33530
Tommy Tremble33331
Giovanni Ricci11320
Terrace Marshall Jr.23150
Laviska Shenault Jr.23130
Ian Thomas1190
Stephen Sullivan0200
Raheem Blackshear11-10

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady34/4543230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette10282.80
Rachaad White11222.00
Julio Jones11313.00
Tom Brady341.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans10122073
Chris Godwin Jr.991200
Russell Gage33330
Rachaad White55260
Leonard Fournette44190
Cade Otton26170
Julio Jones12100
Ko Kieft0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.1%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.8%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.49
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.12