2022 · Week 17 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 2mph
Closing spread
TB -3.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play-0.030
- 40.8%Success rate44.0%
- -0.062EPA / dropback+0.052
- -0.005EPA / rush-0.208
- 9.4%Explosive rate6.5%
- -4.71CPOE+0.30
- 31.6%Third-down rate38.1%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 1.70Points / drive1.63
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. TB are 21-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 23/37 | 341 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman | 13 | 35 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 6 | 10 | 117 | 1 |
| Shi Smith | 4 | 4 | 70 | 1 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 3 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 3 | 3 | 33 | 1 |
| Giovanni Ricci | 1 | 1 | 32 | 0 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Stephen Sullivan | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 34/45 | 432 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 11 | 22 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 10 | 12 | 207 | 3 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 9 | 9 | 120 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 5 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Ko Kieft | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.49
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.12