2025 · Week 16 · Division
Final
Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.006EPA / play-0.025
- 43.3%Success rate43.7%
- +0.064EPA / dropback+0.007
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.072
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.0%
- -2.55CPOE+1.44
- 41.0%Third-down rate35.7%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.89Points / drive1.80
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. CAR are 27-21 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 18/26 | 145 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 19 | 71 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 4 | 49 | 12.3 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 5 | 45 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Sean Tucker | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 1 |
| Jalen McMillan | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emeka Egbuka | 1 | 2 | 40 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 5 | 9 | 31 | 1 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 5 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jalen McMillan | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Tez Johnson | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 21/32 | 191 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan | 6 | 10 | 73 | 1 |
| Jalen Coker | 3 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Mitchell Evans | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 4 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Xavier Legette | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 2 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.8%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.58
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-0.11