2025 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

20·23

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

TB -3

Total

44.5

Model margin

-0.1est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapPanthers
  • +0.006EPA / play-0.025
  • 43.3%Success rate43.7%
  • +0.064EPA / dropback+0.007
  • -0.087EPA / rush-0.072
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -2.55CPOE+1.44
  • 41.0%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.80
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–24 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. CAR are 27-22 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7TB @ CAR43–13TB
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB
2022 · W7TB @ CAR3–21CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–CAR
CARQ1 15:00856Field goal0–3
TBQ1 10:301053Touchdown7–3
CARQ1 4:01611Punt7–3
TBQ1 0:211365Field goal10–3
CARQ2 8:0938Punt10–3
TBQ2 7:234-2Punt10–3
CARQ2 4:25516Field goal10–6
TBQ2 2:0633Punt10–6
CARQ2 1:06863Touchdown10–13
TBQ2 0:0700End of half10–13
TBQ3 15:001566Touchdown17–13
CARQ3 6:411170Touchdown17–20
TBQ3 0:08516Field goal20–20
CARQ4 11:2469Punt20–20
TBQ4 7:55643Punt20–20
CARQ4 4:46643Field goal20–23
TBQ4 2:20753Turnover20–23
CARQ4 0:4200End of half20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield18/2614511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bucky Irving19713.70
Baker Mayfield44912.30
Rachaad White5459.00
Sean Tucker430.81
Jalen McMillan111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emeka Egbuka12400
Mike Evans59311
Chris Godwin Jr.56300
Rachaad White22150
Cade Otton22150
Jalen McMillan23150
Tez Johnson11-10

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young21/3219120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rico Dowdle9293.20
Chuba Hubbard6274.50
Jimmy Horn Jr.12525.00
Bryce Young4205.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tetairoa McMillan610731
Jalen Coker35470
Mitchell Evans33230
Rico Dowdle46140
Xavier Legette13120
Ja'Tavion Sanders2291
Chuba Hubbard1170
Tommy Tremble1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

7.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.8%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.58
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-0.11