2026 · Week 7 · Division
Scheduled
Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass
Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-2.4est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Buccaneersedge mapPanthers
- -0.081EPA / play+0.130
- 51.8%Success rate47.1%
- -0.168EPA / dropback+0.242
- +0.118EPA / rush-0.106
- 5.4%Explosive rate11.8%
- +14.02CPOE+4.17
- 50.0%Third-down rate44.4%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 1.44Points / drive2.90
- 7.1%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. CAR are 27-21 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.63
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.41