2026 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

43·13

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

CAR -3

Total

44.5

Model margin

+1.9est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapPanthers
  • -0.081EPA / play+0.019
  • 40.9%Success rate41.9%
  • -0.130EPA / dropback+0.072
  • -0.011EPA / rush-0.084
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -2.76CPOE-0.58
  • 40.9%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 56.2%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
  • 1.86Points / drive2.15
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–24 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. CAR are 27-22 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB
2022 · W7TB @ CAR3–21CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–CAR
TBQ1 15:001470Touchdown7–0
CARQ1 7:22619Punt7–0
TBQ1 4:45611Punt7–0
TBQ1 0:47414Field goal10–0
CARQ2 14:12611Opp touchdown17–0
CARQ2 11:05572Touchdown19–6
TBQ2 9:09864Touchdown26–6
CARQ2 3:53312Turnover26–6
TBQ2 2:30937Touchdown33–6
CARQ2 0:0400End of half33–6
CARQ3 15:004-8Punt33–6
TBQ3 12:5737Punt33–6
CARQ3 10:33511Turnover33–6
TBQ3 8:59416Field goal36–6
CARQ3 6:301464Turnover on downs36–6
TBQ3 1:50999Touchdown43–6
CARQ4 10:21871Touchdown43–13
TBQ4 5:2847Turnover on downs43–13
CARQ4 3:03514Turnover on downs43–13
TBQ4 1:1700End of half43–13

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield7/116410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bucky Irving241064.42
Kenny Gainwell14886.30
Sean Tucker7527.41
Tez Johnson11414.00
Baker Mayfield111.00
Jalon Daniels2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tez Johnson22331
Chris Godwin Jr.45270
Bucky Irving1240
Cade Otton0100
Ted Hurst III0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young14/2716312
Kenny Pickett3/44700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard7334.70
Anthony Tyus III3237.71
Kenny Pickett11515.00
Bryce Young199.00
Trevor Etienne681.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darren Waller12501
Tetairoa McMillan46400
Mitchell Evans22390
Chuba Hubbard45270
John Metchie III24200
Trevor Etienne22170
Jalen Coker1490
Tommy Tremble1280
David Moore0100
Brycen Tremayne0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.3%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.27
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.95