2008 · Week 6

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Kyle Orton

20·22

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

CHI -3

Total

43

Model margin

+3.4est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

6.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.095EPA / play+0.066
  • 39.3%Success rate43.0%
  • -0.083EPA / dropback+0.161
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.021
  • 7.2%Explosive rate10.9%
  • -3.00CPOE+0.99
  • 35.1%Third-down rate43.3%
  • 59.3%Red-zone TD rate55.2%
  • 1.70Points / drive2.04
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 8–4 since 1999

CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. ATL are 2-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6CHI @ ATL31–23CHI
2023 · W17ATL @ CHI17–37CHI
2022 · W11CHI @ ATL24–27ATL
2020 · W3CHI @ ATL30–26CHI
2017 · W1ATL @ CHI23–17ATL
2014 · W6CHI @ ATL27–13CHI
2011 · W1ATL @ CHI12–30CHI
2009 · W6CHI @ ATL14–21ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00953Field goal0–3
CHIQ1 9:13513Punt0–3
ATLQ1 6:291054Field goal0–6
CHIQ1 0:59613Punt0–6
ATLQ2 13:07743Turnover0–6
ATLQ2 9:1643Field goal0–9
CHIQ2 7:49861Field goal3–9
ATLQ2 4:02845Punt3–9
CHIQ2 0:36317End of half3–9
CHIQ3 15:0035Punt3–9
ATLQ3 13:55756Field goal3–12
CHIQ3 10:361482Touchdown10–12
ATLQ3 2:241191Touchdown10–19
CHIQ4 13:251259Turnover on downs10–19
ATLQ4 7:5933Punt10–19
CHIQ4 5:56840Field goal13–19
ATLQ4 4:0032Missed field goal13–19
CHIQ4 2:431271Touchdown20–19
ATLQ4 0:11126Field goal20–22

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton26/4328610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte20763.81
Kevin Jones231.50
Jason McKie100.00

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan22/3030110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner25542.20
Jerious Norwood33110.30
Matt Ryan111.00
Harry Douglas1-11-11.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

6.80%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.42