Closing spread
CHI -3
Total
43
Model margin
+3.4est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
6.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.095EPA / play+0.066
- 39.3%Success rate43.0%
- -0.083EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.021
- 7.2%Explosive rate10.9%
- -3.00CPOE+0.99
- 35.1%Third-down rate43.3%
- 59.3%Red-zone TD rate55.2%
- 1.70Points / drive2.04
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 7–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. ATL are 2-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 26/43 | 286 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 20 | 76 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Kevin Jones | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jason McKie | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 22/30 | 301 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 25 | 54 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Jerious Norwood | 3 | 31 | 10.3 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 1 | -11 | -11.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
6.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.42