Closing spread
NYJ -9.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.172EPA / play+0.038
- 38.0%Success rate47.0%
- -0.150EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.208EPA / rush+0.048
- 5.1%Explosive rate9.0%
- -3.29CPOE+3.75
- 35.3%Third-down rate40.6%
- 45.7%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 0.93Points / drive1.85
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 8–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.4 points. NYJ are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 20/33 | 152 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Chris Perry | 11 | 14 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 25/33 | 189 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 17 | 65 | 3.8 | 2 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jesse Chatman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
3.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.3%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.56
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.61