2008 · Week 6

Final / OT

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

24·30

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kurt Warner

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

DAL -4.5

Total

53

Model margin

+2.8est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapCardinals
  • -0.018EPA / play+0.052
  • 41.9%Success rate45.0%
  • -0.021EPA / dropback+0.144
  • -0.015EPA / rush-0.140
  • 10.2%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +3.06CPOE+5.02
  • 43.2%Third-down rate43.3%
  • 67.6%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
  • 1.67Points / drive2.12
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 12–7 since 1999

ARI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. ARI are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9ARI @ DAL27–17ARI
2023 · W3DAL @ ARI16–28ARI
2021 · W17ARI @ DAL25–22ARI
2020 · W6ARI @ DAL38–10ARI
2017 · W3DAL @ ARI28–17DAL
2014 · W9ARI @ DAL28–17ARI
2011 · W13DAL @ ARI13–19ARI
2010 · W16DAL @ ARI26–27ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–ARI
ARIQ1 15:0000Touchdown0–7
DALQ1 14:4533Punt0–7
ARIQ1 12:2538Punt0–7
DALQ1 10:453-9Punt0–7
ARIQ1 9:3435Turnover0–7
DALQ1 7:581-3Turnover0–7
ARIQ1 7:48418Punt0–7
DALQ1 6:0034Punt0–7
ARIQ1 4:1910Turnover0–7
DALQ1 4:10522Punt0–7
ARIQ1 1:27513Punt0–7
DALQ2 13:27934Punt0–7
ARIQ2 8:01532Punt0–7
DALQ2 4:528106Touchdown7–7
ARIQ2 0:5900Missed field goal7–7
DALQ2 0:5639Missed field goal7–7
ARIQ2 0:1200End of half7–7
DALQ3 15:001278Touchdown14–7
ARIQ3 8:111266Touchdown14–14
DALQ3 3:21515Punt14–14
ARIQ3 0:42994Touchdown14–21
DALQ4 10:4436Punt14–21
ARIQ4 8:15848Field goal14–24
DALQ4 3:17582Touchdown21–24
ARIQ4 2:003-7Punt21–24
DALQ4 0:50534Field goal24–24
DALOT3-7Opp touchdown24–30

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo24/3932130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marion Barber17452.60
Felix Jones3227.30
Terrell Owens166.00
Tony Romo100.00

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kurt Warner22/3023621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James9293.20
Tim Hightower7202.90
J.J. Arrington122.00
Kurt Warner2-1-0.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.28%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.5%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.27
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.76