Closing spread
DAL -4.5
Total
53
Model margin
+2.8est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play+0.052
- 41.9%Success rate45.0%
- -0.021EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.015EPA / rush-0.140
- 10.2%Explosive rate8.6%
- +3.06CPOE+5.02
- 43.2%Third-down rate43.3%
- 67.6%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 1.67Points / drive2.12
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 12–7 since 1999
ARI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. ARI are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 24/39 | 321 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 17 | 45 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 22/30 | 236 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.27
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.76