Closing spread
DAL -7
Total
45
Model margin
+0.6est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
4.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.002EPA / play-0.220
- 43.2%Success rate37.1%
- +0.048EPA / dropback-0.248
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.165
- 9.1%Explosive rate8.3%
- +2.25CPOE-9.59
- 40.4%Third-down rate27.4%
- 65.7%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
- 1.67Points / drive1.06
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 12–7 since 1999
ARI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. ARI are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 12/20 | 115 | 1 | 2 |
| Stephen McGee | 11/17 | 111 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Jones | 16 | 77 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 8 | 58 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Stephen McGee | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Austin | 6 | 13 | 115 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 8 | 11 | 45 | 1 |
| Martellus Bennett | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Sam Hurd | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Skelton | 11/25 | 183 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wells | 11 | 47 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| John Skelton | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Roberts | 5 | 9 | 110 | 1 |
| Max Komar | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 1 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Stephen Spach | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Patrick | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
4.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.05
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.63