2010 · Week 16

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Jon Kitna

26·27

Cardinals

Arizona

QB John Skelton

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

DAL -7

Total

45

Model margin

+0.6est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

4.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapCardinals
  • -0.002EPA / play-0.220
  • 43.2%Success rate37.1%
  • +0.048EPA / dropback-0.248
  • -0.085EPA / rush-0.165
  • 9.1%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +2.25CPOE-9.59
  • 40.4%Third-down rate27.4%
  • 65.7%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
  • 1.67Points / drive1.06
  • 2.5%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 12–7 since 1999

ARI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. ARI are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9ARI @ DAL27–17ARI
2023 · W3DAL @ ARI16–28ARI
2021 · W17ARI @ DAL25–22ARI
2020 · W6ARI @ DAL38–10ARI
2017 · W3DAL @ ARI28–17DAL
2014 · W9ARI @ DAL28–17ARI
2011 · W13DAL @ ARI13–19ARI
2008 · W6DAL @ ARI24–30ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–ARI
ARIQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
DALQ1 13:3720Opp touchdown0–7
DALQ1 12:47837Opp touchdown0–14
DALQ1 8:243-6Punt0–14
ARIQ1 6:53930Missed field goal0–14
DALQ1 2:45942Field goal3–14
ARIQ2 12:49280Touchdown3–21
DALQ2 11:571481Touchdown10–21
ARIQ2 5:11525Punt10–21
DALQ2 2:00419Punt10–21
ARIQ2 0:2017End of half10–21
DALQ3 15:0034Punt10–21
ARIQ3 13:2930Punt10–21
DALQ3 12:50416Punt10–21
ARIQ3 10:4138Punt10–21
DALQ3 8:45426Field goal13–21
ARIQ3 6:4637Punt13–21
DALQ3 5:40652Touchdown20–21
ARIQ3 1:5838Punt20–21
DALQ3 0:191127Punt20–21
ARIQ4 8:50849Field goal20–24
DALQ4 3:45971Touchdown26–24
ARIQ4 1:41751Field goal26–27
DALQ4 0:05113Turnover26–27

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna12/2011512
Stephen McGee11/1711110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Felix Jones16774.80
Marion Barber8587.31
Stephen McGee4194.80
Tashard Choice4164.00
Jon Kitna177.00
Miles Austin166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Miles Austin6131151
Jason Witten811451
Martellus Bennett35220
Sam Hurd22170
Tashard Choice33160
Felix Jones11110
Roy Williams0200

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
John Skelton11/2518310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Wells11474.30
Tim Hightower6233.80
John Skelton3217.00
Jason Wright122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Roberts591101
Max Komar33310
Larry Fitzgerald13260
Tim Hightower1360
Stephen Spach0200
Ben Patrick0100
Jim Dray0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

4.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.8%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.91
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.05
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.63