Closing spread
MIN -13
Total
44.5
Model margin
+8.7est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.162EPA / play-0.039
- 36.3%Success rate40.9%
- -0.203EPA / dropback+0.001
- -0.092EPA / rush-0.081
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.0%
- -3.61CPOE-2.18
- 28.7%Third-down rate39.7%
- 72.0%Red-zone TD rate53.5%
- 1.21Points / drive1.59
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. MIN are 25-26-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DET–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 5 | -3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 13:20 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 11:11 | 6 | 38 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 7:55 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 6:33 | 11 | 66 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 0:31 | 3 | -1 | Safety | 0–2 |
| MIN | Q1 0:18 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 0–2 |
| DET | Q2 13:39 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–2 |
| MIN | Q2 11:51 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–2 |
| DET | Q2 10:23 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 0–2 |
| MIN | Q2 7:38 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 0–2 |
| DET | Q2 4:58 | 5 | 48 | Field goal | 3–2 |
| MIN | Q2 1:56 | 5 | 29 | Punt | 3–2 |
| DET | Q2 0:41 | 1 | 2 | End of half | 3–2 |
| DET | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 79 | Touchdown | 10–2 |
| MIN | Q3 8:22 | 5 | 17 | Turnover | 10–2 |
| DET | Q3 6:22 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–8 |
| MIN | Q3 4:47 | 1 | 86 | Touchdown | 10–9 |
| DET | Q3 4:33 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 10–9 |
| MIN | Q3 2:56 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 10–9 |
| DET | Q3 1:17 | 4 | -4 | Punt | 10–9 |
| MIN | Q3 0:03 | 6 | 53 | Turnover | 10–9 |
| DET | Q4 12:43 | 1 | 32 | Turnover | 10–9 |
| MIN | Q4 12:29 | 6 | 50 | Missed field goal | 10–9 |
| DET | Q4 10:04 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 10–9 |
| MIN | Q4 7:23 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–9 |
| DET | Q4 6:01 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–9 |
| MIN | Q4 4:41 | 10 | 44 | Field goal | 10–12 |
| DET | Q4 0:09 | 1 | -8 | End of half | 10–12 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Orlovsky | 12/21 | 150 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 5 | 62 | 12.4 | 0 |
| Rudi Johnson | 17 | 38 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Dan Orlovsky | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 18/33 | 296 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 25 | 111 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
71.5%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.29
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+8.70