Closing spread
MIN -13
Total
44.5
Model margin
+8.7est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.162EPA / play-0.039
- 36.3%Success rate40.9%
- -0.203EPA / dropback+0.001
- -0.092EPA / rush-0.081
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.0%
- -3.61CPOE-2.18
- 28.7%Third-down rate39.7%
- 72.0%Red-zone TD rate53.5%
- 1.21Points / drive1.59
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. MIN are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Orlovsky | 12/21 | 150 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 5 | 62 | 12.4 | 0 |
| Rudi Johnson | 17 | 38 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Dan Orlovsky | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 18/33 | 296 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 25 | 111 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
71.5%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.29
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+8.70