2008 · Week 6

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

27·17

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Charlie Frye

Qwest Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 56°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

SEA -1

Total

44

Model margin

-2.3est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.051EPA / play-0.057
  • 43.8%Success rate37.8%
  • +0.134EPA / dropback-0.022
  • -0.072EPA / rush-0.103
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +4.24CPOE-5.09
  • 44.1%Third-down rate31.4%
  • 66.2%Red-zone TD rate54.9%
  • 1.94Points / drive1.56
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 12–6 since 1999

GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. SEA are 4-12-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15GB @ SEA30–13GB
2021 · W10SEA @ GB0–17GB
2019 · playoffsSEA @ GB23–28GB
2018 · W11GB @ SEA24–27SEA
2017 · W1SEA @ GB9–17GB
2016 · W14SEA @ GB10–38GB
2015 · W2SEA @ GB17–27GB
2014 · playoffsGB @ SEA22–28SEA

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers21/3020820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Grant33902.70
Aaron Rodgers6233.81

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Frye12/238322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Julius Jones12443.70
Charlie Frye23015.00
Maurice Morris4164.00
T.J. Duckett294.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.0%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.69
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.04
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.25