Closing spread
SEA -1
Total
44
Model margin
-2.3est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.051EPA / play-0.057
- 43.8%Success rate37.8%
- +0.134EPA / dropback-0.022
- -0.072EPA / rush-0.103
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.7%
- +4.24CPOE-5.09
- 44.1%Third-down rate31.4%
- 66.2%Red-zone TD rate54.9%
- 1.94Points / drive1.56
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 12–6 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. SEA are 4-12-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 13:33 | 6 | 34 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 10:33 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 8:15 | 10 | 48 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q1 2:25 | 9 | 35 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| GB | Q2 13:05 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| SEA | Q2 11:42 | 7 | 32 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| GB | Q2 8:17 | 13 | 59 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| SEA | Q2 1:08 | 2 | 6 | End of half | 10–10 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 10–10 |
| SEA | Q3 13:54 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 10–10 |
| GB | Q3 12:00 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 10–10 |
| SEA | Q3 8:28 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–10 |
| GB | Q3 7:24 | 3 | 49 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| SEA | Q3 5:56 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 17–10 |
| GB | Q3 4:15 | 15 | 79 | Touchdown | 24–10 |
| SEA | Q4 11:23 | 3 | 13 | Turnover | 24–10 |
| GB | Q4 10:26 | 3 | 0 | Field goal | 27–10 |
| SEA | Q4 8:41 | 5 | 17 | Turnover | 27–10 |
| GB | Q4 6:22 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 27–10 |
| SEA | Q4 5:15 | 10 | 62 | Touchdown | 27–17 |
| GB | Q4 3:14 | 4 | 17 | End of half | 27–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 21/30 | 208 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 33 | 90 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 1 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Frye | 12/23 | 83 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Charlie Frye | 2 | 30 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.0%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.69
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.04
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.25