Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play+0.101
- 44.6%Success rate49.2%
- +0.013EPA / dropback+0.157
- -0.032EPA / rush-0.007
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.1%
- +3.08CPOE+1.41
- 41.7%Third-down rate48.2%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
- 1.65Points / drive2.01
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 39.3 points. DEN are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 25/34 | 276 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 22 | 125 | 5.7 | 2 |
| Fred Taylor | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 8 | 7 | 0.9 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 21/37 | 192 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 20 | 109 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.56
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.04