Closing spread
HOU -3
Total
45
Model margin
+1.8est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.084EPA / play+0.037
- 46.3%Success rate45.3%
- +0.181EPA / dropback+0.069
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.012
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.6%
- +4.74CPOE+3.93
- 37.1%Third-down rate42.2%
- 69.4%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 1.69Points / drive1.91
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–3 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. HOU are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 31 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 12:35 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 11:06 | 7 | 39 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 6:59 | 2 | 55 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| HOU | Q1 6:08 | 9 | 61 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| MIA | Q1 1:02 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–3 |
| HOU | Q2 14:17 | 5 | 46 | Punt | 7–3 |
| MIA | Q2 11:58 | 2 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| HOU | Q2 11:37 | 6 | 22 | Field goal | 14–6 |
| MIA | Q2 9:07 | 6 | 16 | Opp touchdown | 14–13 |
| MIA | Q2 5:24 | 5 | 6 | Punt | 14–13 |
| HOU | Q2 1:47 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–13 |
| MIA | Q2 0:42 | 1 | 7 | End of half | 14–13 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–13 |
| HOU | Q3 13:01 | 5 | 78 | Touchdown | 14–20 |
| MIA | Q3 10:00 | 6 | 73 | Touchdown | 21–20 |
| HOU | Q3 6:18 | 10 | 63 | Turnover | 21–20 |
| MIA | Q3 0:55 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 21–20 |
| HOU | Q4 13:40 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 21–20 |
| MIA | Q4 12:40 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 21–20 |
| HOU | Q4 9:43 | 7 | 56 | Field goal | 21–23 |
| MIA | Q4 6:04 | 6 | 16 | Turnover | 21–23 |
| MIA | Q4 3:04 | 5 | 73 | Touchdown | 28–23 |
| HOU | Q4 1:45 | 11 | 76 | Touchdown | 28–29 |
| MIA | Q4 0:03 | 1 | -2 | End of half | 28–29 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 19/25 | 284 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 13 | 50 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Ricky Williams | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 1 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 22/42 | 379 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Slaton | 15 | 58 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 8 | 41 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.72
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.77