Closing spread
NO -7
Total
47
Model margin
+3.5est.
NO perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 48.5 points. NO are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 26/30 | 320 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 13 | 65 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 14 | 27 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
4.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin+3.48
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.