Closing spread
NO -7
Total
47
Model margin
+3.5est.
NO perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 5–4 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 50 points. NO are 4-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 13:12 | 8 | 33 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NO | Q1 9:44 | 9 | 87 | Missed field goal | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 4:11 | 9 | 29 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NO | Q2 14:44 | 19 | 82 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| LV | Q2 3:45 | 5 | 21 | Missed field goal | 3–7 |
| NO | Q2 1:48 | 5 | 37 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| LV | Q2 0:50 | 5 | 44 | Missed field goal | 3–10 |
| NO | Q2 0:06 | 1 | 25 | End of half | 3–10 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–10 |
| NO | Q3 13:28 | 11 | 55 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| LV | Q3 7:42 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 3–17 |
| NO | Q3 6:34 | 2 | 17 | Touchdown | 3–24 |
| LV | Q3 5:57 | 8 | 25 | Punt | 3–24 |
| NO | Q3 2:27 | 6 | 65 | Field goal | 3–27 |
| LV | Q4 14:10 | 4 | 17 | Turnover | 3–27 |
| NO | Q4 12:39 | 4 | 30 | Touchdown | 3–34 |
| LV | Q4 11:04 | 12 | 49 | Turnover on downs | 3–34 |
| NO | Q4 6:26 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 3–34 |
| LV | Q4 2:45 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 3–34 |
| NO | Q4 1:52 | 3 | 18 | End of half | 3–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 26/30 | 320 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 13 | 65 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 14 | 27 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
4.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin+3.48
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.