Closing spread
NO -2.5
Total
50
Model margin
+1.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutAustin HowardTAnkle· DNP
Saints
- OutDannell EllerbeLBQuadricep· DNP
- QuestionableChris ManhertzTEHead· Full
- QuestionableMichael ThomasWRAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableTerron ArmsteadTKnee· Limited
Win probability
- Saints
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 5–4 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 50 points. NO are 4-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -4 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 14:45 | 4 | 2 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NO | Q1 12:23 | 12 | 78 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| LV | Q1 6:31 | 7 | 96 | Touchdown | 10–3 |
| NO | Q1 1:43 | 9 | 74 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| LV | Q2 11:57 | 7 | 13 | Punt | 10–10 |
| NO | Q2 9:01 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| LV | Q2 4:55 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 10–17 |
| NO | Q2 2:40 | 8 | 16 | Punt | 10–17 |
| LV | Q2 1:11 | 6 | 47 | End of half | 10–17 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–17 |
| NO | Q3 13:29 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 10–17 |
| LV | Q3 11:23 | 7 | 25 | Punt | 10–23 |
| NO | Q3 8:03 | 1 | 98 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| LV | Q3 7:52 | 11 | 67 | Field goal | 13–24 |
| NO | Q3 3:11 | 9 | 43 | Missed field goal | 13–24 |
| LV | Q4 13:42 | 5 | 70 | Touchdown | 19–24 |
| NO | Q4 11:53 | 7 | 29 | Field goal | 19–27 |
| LV | Q4 8:42 | 2 | 75 | Touchdown | 27–27 |
| NO | Q4 8:26 | 4 | 49 | Touchdown | 27–34 |
| LV | Q4 6:03 | 13 | 65 | Touchdown | 35–34 |
| NO | Q4 0:47 | 3 | 34 | Missed field goal | 35–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 28/42 | 423 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Snead | 9 | 9 | 172 | 1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 6 | 9 | 143 | 2 |
| Michael Thomas | 6 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 3 | 7 | 14 | 1 |
| Coby Fleener | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.15
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.59
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.