Closing spread
NO -2.5
Total
50
Model margin
+1.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 48.5 points. NO are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 28/42 | 423 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Snead | 9 | 9 | 172 | 1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 6 | 9 | 143 | 2 |
| Michael Thomas | 6 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 3 | 7 | 14 | 1 |
| Coby Fleener | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.15
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.59
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.