Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
43
Model margin
+3.5est.
NO perspective
Push chance
6.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 48.5 points. NO are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 14/22 | 187 | 2 | 1 |
| Jeff Blake | 2/5 | 39 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Morton | 5 | 45 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jerald Moore | 13 | 42 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 7 | 5 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Jackson | 4 | 7 | 85 | 2 |
| Chad Morton | 6 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Keith Poole | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Andrew Glover | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
6.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.87
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.51
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.