Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
43
Model margin
+3.5est.
NO perspective
Push chance
6.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 5–4 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 50 points. NO are 4-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 12:38 | 3 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 11:33 | 13 | 52 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NO | Q1 4:34 | 9 | 29 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 1:02 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NO | Q2 14:45 | 3 | 11 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| LV | Q2 13:15 | 4 | 47 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| NO | Q2 11:38 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–0 |
| LV | Q2 9:38 | 6 | 45 | Touchdown | 17–0 |
| NO | Q2 6:15 | 4 | 74 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| LV | Q2 3:53 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 17–7 |
| NO | Q2 2:26 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 17–7 |
| LV | Q2 1:26 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 17–7 |
| NO | Q2 0:34 | 4 | 34 | End of half | 17–7 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 57 | Field goal | 17–10 |
| LV | Q3 8:54 | 3 | -3 | Turnover | 17–10 |
| NO | Q3 7:27 | 9 | -5 | Field goal | 17–13 |
| LV | Q3 3:09 | 11 | 73 | Touchdown | 24–13 |
| NO | Q4 12:05 | 8 | 62 | Field goal | 24–16 |
| LV | Q4 7:41 | 12 | 74 | Touchdown | 31–16 |
| NO | Q4 1:55 | 4 | 30 | Touchdown | 31–22 |
| LV | Q4 1:09 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 31–22 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 14/22 | 187 | 2 | 1 |
| Jeff Blake | 2/5 | 39 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Morton | 5 | 45 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jerald Moore | 13 | 42 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 7 | 5 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Jackson | 4 | 7 | 85 | 2 |
| Chad Morton | 6 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Keith Poole | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Andrew Glover | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
6.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.87
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.51
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.