Closing spread
NO -6
Total
56.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 48.5 points. OAK are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 20/27 | 219 | 3 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 1/1 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 12 | 67 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Chris Ivory | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 4 | 6 | 69 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 2 | 3 | 53 | 2 |
| Jimmy Graham | 6 | 6 | 29 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Joseph Morgan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.47
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.02
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.