Closing spread
NO -6
Total
56.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Saints
- OutCorey WhiteCBKnee· DNP
- OutJunior GaletteDEAnkle· DNP
- OutZach StriefTGroin· DNP
- QuestionableDarren SprolesRBHand· Full
- ProbableCourtney RobyWRShoulder· Full
Raiders
- OutDarren McFaddenRBAnkle· DNP
- OutMike GoodsonRBAnkle· DNP
- OutRichard SeymourDTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableDarrius Heyward-BeyWRHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableTyvon BranchSNeck· Limited
- ProbableSebastian JanikowskiKleft Groin· Limited
- ProbableBrandon MyersTEShoulder· Full
- ProbableKhalif BarnesTGroin· Full
- ProbableMarcel ReeceRBHamstring· Full
- ProbableMatt GiordanoSConcussion· Full
- ProbableRichard GordonTEHamstring· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 5–4 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 50 points. OAK are 5-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 34 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 11:55 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 7:53 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NO | Q1 6:01 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 4:24 | 2 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 14–0 |
| LV | Q1 4:06 | 19 | 97 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| NO | Q2 10:07 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 14–0 |
| LV | Q2 6:27 | 5 | 62 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| NO | Q2 4:10 | 8 | 100 | Touchdown | 21–7 |
| LV | Q2 0:48 | 4 | 8 | End of half | 21–7 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 1 | 27 | Touchdown | 28–7 |
| LV | Q3 14:43 | 9 | 45 | Field goal | 28–10 |
| NO | Q3 10:22 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 28–10 |
| LV | Q3 8:11 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 28–10 |
| NO | Q3 6:12 | 6 | 58 | Touchdown | 35–10 |
| LV | Q3 3:26 | 8 | 40 | Turnover on downs | 35–10 |
| NO | Q4 14:54 | 8 | 31 | Field goal | 38–10 |
| LV | Q4 10:28 | 7 | 31 | Turnover on downs | 38–10 |
| NO | Q4 8:18 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 38–10 |
| LV | Q4 6:03 | 8 | 88 | Touchdown | 38–17 |
| NO | Q4 4:00 | 6 | 33 | End of half | 38–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 20/27 | 219 | 3 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 1/1 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 12 | 67 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Chris Ivory | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 4 | 6 | 69 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 2 | 3 | 53 | 2 |
| Jimmy Graham | 6 | 6 | 29 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Joseph Morgan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.47
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.02
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.