Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 5–4 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 50 points. OAK are 5-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 39 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 11:01 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 8:42 | 4 | 40 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NO | Q1 6:53 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 5:47 | 12 | 40 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| NO | Q1 0:08 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–6 |
| LV | Q2 14:41 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 0–6 |
| NO | Q2 11:30 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–6 |
| LV | Q2 9:56 | 6 | 50 | Field goal | 0–9 |
| NO | Q2 6:53 | 8 | 50 | Punt | 0–9 |
| LV | Q2 3:01 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–9 |
| NO | Q2 2:34 | 6 | 58 | Touchdown | 7–9 |
| LV | Q2 1:01 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–9 |
| NO | Q2 0:07 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 7–9 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–9 |
| LV | Q3 14:04 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–9 |
| NO | Q3 13:12 | 12 | 84 | Touchdown | 14–9 |
| LV | Q3 8:31 | 7 | 37 | Turnover | 14–9 |
| NO | Q3 4:47 | 6 | 30 | Touchdown | 21–9 |
| LV | Q3 1:32 | 5 | 74 | Touchdown | 21–16 |
| NO | Q4 14:34 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 21–16 |
| LV | Q4 12:39 | 8 | 38 | Field goal | 21–19 |
| NO | Q4 9:51 | 9 | 44 | Field goal | 30–19 |
| LV | Q4 4:31 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 31–19 |
| LV | Q4 4:20 | 7 | 76 | Touchdown | 31–26 |
| NO | Q4 2:34 | 7 | 25 | End of half | 31–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 23/39 | 282 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 24 | 42 | 1.8 | 2 |
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.36
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.92
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.