Closing spread
NO -4
Total
47.5
Model margin
-2.5est.
LV perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.096EPA / play+0.066
- 47.7%Success rate47.4%
- +0.140EPA / dropback+0.155
- +0.039EPA / rush-0.067
- 9.5%Explosive rate10.3%
- +2.58CPOE+2.18
- 46.0%Third-down rate45.5%
- 72.9%Red-zone TD rate59.9%
- 2.72Points / drive2.49
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 48.5 points. LV are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 26/38 | 312 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 13 | 79 | 6.1 | 2 |
| Latavius Murray | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 9 | 9 | 95 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 5 | 7 | 86 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 2 | 5 | 13 | 1 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 28/38 | 284 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 27 | 88 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jalen Richard | 2 | 26 | 13.0 | 1 |
| Derek Carr | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Waller | 12 | 16 | 105 | 1 |
| Bryan Edwards | 2 | 2 | 42 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 1 | 31 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 1 | 15 | 1 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Henry Ruggs III | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.4%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.20
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.50