2020 · Week 2

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

24·34

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

NO -4

Total

47.5

Model margin

-2.5est.

LV perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapRaiders
  • +0.096EPA / play+0.066
  • 47.7%Success rate47.4%
  • +0.140EPA / dropback+0.155
  • +0.039EPA / rush-0.067
  • 9.5%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +2.58CPOE+2.18
  • 46.0%Third-down rate45.5%
  • 72.9%Red-zone TD rate59.9%
  • 2.72Points / drive2.49
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LV lead 5–4 since 1999

RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 50 points. LV are 5-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3LV @ NO35–27RAIDERS
2024 · W17LV @ NO25–10RAIDERS
2022 · W8LV @ NO0–24NO
2016 · W1OAK @ NO35–34RAIDERS
2012 · W11NO @ OAK38–17NO
2008 · W6OAK @ NO3–34NO
2004 · W7NO @ OAK31–26NO
2000 · W12OAK @ NO31–22RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–LV
NOQ1 15:001062Field goal3–0
LVQ1 11:01611Punt3–0
NOQ1 7:581073Touchdown10–0
LVQ1 3:51516Punt10–0
NOQ1 1:1035Punt10–0
LVQ1 0:131258Touchdown10–7
NOQ2 8:55776Touchdown17–7
LVQ2 5:221070Touchdown17–14
NOQ2 1:44413Turnover17–14
LVQ2 0:48731Field goal17–17
LVQ3 15:001055Touchdown17–24
NOQ3 9:58867Punt17–24
LVQ3 5:521345Turnover17–24
NOQ4 14:06513Punt17–24
LVQ4 12:171074Touchdown17–31
NOQ4 7:43867Touchdown24–31
LVQ4 4:33717Field goal24–34
NOQ4 1:05548End of half24–34

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees26/3831211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara13796.12
Latavius Murray3144.70
Deonte Harty11111.00
Taysom Hill284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alvin Kamara99950
Tre'Quan Smith57860
Ty Montgomery23250
Deonte Harty35230
Latavius Murray22190
Emmanuel Sanders13180
Adam Trautman11170
Josh Hill12160
Jared Cook25131

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr28/3828430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs27883.30
Jalen Richard22613.01
Derek Carr331.00
Devontae Booker3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darren Waller12161051
Bryan Edwards22420
Hunter Renfrow33370
Foster Moreau11310
Nelson Agholor11190
Josh Jacobs33170
Zay Jones11151
Devontae Booker1160
Henry Ruggs III1340
Jason Witten1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -42.6%3.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.4%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.20
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.50