Closing spread
LV -2
Total
37.5
Model margin
-5.4est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.131EPA / play-0.057
- 41.0%Success rate40.6%
- -0.058EPA / dropback-0.071
- -0.283EPA / rush-0.036
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.5%
- -1.46CPOE-3.67
- 34.2%Third-down rate36.3%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 1.51Points / drive1.72
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 48.5 points. NO are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan O'Connell | 20/35 | 242 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ameer Abdullah | 20 | 115 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Chris Collier | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Aidan O'Connell | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
| Brock Bowers | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | 7 | 7 | 77 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 5 | 9 | 61 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 1 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 8 | 24 | 1 |
| Michael Mayer | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Rattler | 20/36 | 218 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Rattler | 3 | 46 | 15.3 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kendre Miller | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juwan Johnson | 6 | 10 | 66 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 3 | 5 | 47 | 1 |
| Dante Pettis | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Kevin Austin Jr. | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Kendre Miller | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
34.9%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.28
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-6.75
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-5.40