2024 · Week 17

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Aidan O'Connell

25·10

Saints

New Orleans

QB Jake Haener

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

LV -2

Total

37.5

Model margin

-5.4est.

NO perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapSaints
  • -0.131EPA / play-0.057
  • 41.0%Success rate40.6%
  • -0.058EPA / dropback-0.071
  • -0.283EPA / rush-0.036
  • 7.2%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -1.46CPOE-3.67
  • 34.2%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 1.51Points / drive1.72
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LV lead 5–4 since 1999

RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 50 points. NO are 4-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3LV @ NO35–27RAIDERS
2022 · W8LV @ NO0–24NO
2020 · W2NO @ LV24–34RAIDERS
2016 · W1OAK @ NO35–34RAIDERS
2012 · W11NO @ OAK38–17NO
2008 · W6OAK @ NO3–34NO
2004 · W7NO @ OAK31–26NO
2000 · W12OAK @ NO31–22RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–NO
LVQ1 15:001755Field goal3–0
NOQ1 5:49432Punt3–0
LVQ1 3:16412Punt3–0
NOQ1 0:45350Touchdown3–7
LVQ2 14:52753Field goal6–7
NOQ2 10:191053Punt6–7
LVQ2 4:211097Touchdown13–7
NOQ2 0:57759Field goal13–10
NOQ3 15:00515Punt13–10
LVQ3 12:53949Field goal16–10
NOQ3 7:5738Punt16–10
LVQ3 6:5935Punt16–10
NOQ3 5:553-10Punt16–10
LVQ3 4:511154Field goal19–10
NOQ4 14:14720Turnover19–10
LVQ4 11:22640Touchdown25–10
NOQ4 8:203-7Punt25–10
LVQ4 7:30519Punt25–10
NOQ4 5:103-6Punt25–10
LVQ4 3:2236Punt25–10
NOQ4 3:031255Turnover25–10
LVQ4 0:5300End of half25–10

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aidan O'Connell20/3524220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ameer Abdullah201155.80
Alexander Mattison10323.20
Chris Collier362.00
Tre Tucker155.00
Aidan O'Connell3-1-0.30
Brock Bowers1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brock Bowers77770
Jakobi Meyers59611
Ameer Abdullah34320
Terrace Marshall Jr.12280
Tre Tucker28241
Michael Mayer12140
Alexander Mattison1360

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Spencer Rattler20/3621812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Spencer Rattler34615.30
Clyde Edwards-Helaire5204.00
Jamaal Williams2126.00
Kendre Miller331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Juwan Johnson610660
Foster Moreau35471
Dante Pettis34270
Kevin Austin Jr.12230
Cedrick Wilson Jr.34170
Kendre Miller11160
Jamaal Williams11120
Clyde Edwards-Helaire24100
Marquez Valdes-Scantling0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -23.1%3.3%5.0%3.2%7.4%6.3%3.4%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

34.9%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.28
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-6.75
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-5.40