Closing spread
LV -1
Total
48.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.009EPA / play-0.037
- 43.4%Success rate45.5%
- +0.057EPA / dropback+0.018
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.109
- 9.9%Explosive rate8.6%
- -2.03CPOE+1.61
- 39.7%Third-down rate40.9%
- 59.7%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 2.10Points / drive1.59
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 48.5 points. NO are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 15/26 | 101 | 0 | 1 |
| Jarrett Stidham | 8/13 | 72 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 10 | 43 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mack Hollins | 7 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 6 | 9 | 31 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 2 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Jesper Horsted | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 22/30 | 229 | 2 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1/1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 18 | 62 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 10 | 61 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 9 | 10 | 96 | 2 |
| Chris Olave | 5 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Marquez Callaway | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.87
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.44
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.38