Closing spread
NO -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
NO perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.029EPA / play+0.030
- 43.1%Success rate44.3%
- +0.027EPA / dropback+0.067
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.075
- 7.7%Explosive rate9.1%
- +0.71CPOE-1.21
- 41.7%Third-down rate47.1%
- 75.0%Red-zone TD rate80.0%
- 2.44Points / drive2.20
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
Meetings average 48.5 points. NO are 4-4 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
39.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.68
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.54