2026 · Week 3

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Kirk Cousins

35·27

Saints

New Orleans

QB Tyler Shough

Caesars Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -3.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapSaints
  • +0.019EPA / play-0.031
  • 43.1%Success rate41.9%
  • +0.168EPA / dropback+0.041
  • -0.252EPA / rush-0.169
  • 7.6%Explosive rate6.1%
  • -1.41CPOE+0.08
  • 40.6%Third-down rate43.6%
  • 55.6%Red-zone TD rate76.7%
  • 2.49Points / drive2.19
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LV lead 5–4 since 1999

RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 50 points. NO are 4-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17LV @ NO25–10RAIDERS
2022 · W8LV @ NO0–24NO
2020 · W2NO @ LV24–34RAIDERS
2016 · W1OAK @ NO35–34RAIDERS
2012 · W11NO @ OAK38–17NO
2008 · W6OAK @ NO3–34NO
2004 · W7NO @ OAK31–26NO
2000 · W12OAK @ NO31–22RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–NO
NOQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
LVQ1 14:071163Field goal3–0
NOQ1 7:351484Touchdown3–6
LVQ1 0:50946Field goal6–6
NOQ2 11:2732Punt6–6
LVQ2 9:311044Touchdown13–6
NOQ2 5:461072Touchdown13–13
LVQ2 1:541246Field goal16–13
LVQ3 15:0035Punt16–13
NOQ3 13:301287Touchdown16–20
LVQ3 6:4000Touchdown16–20
NOQ3 6:33232Touchdown16–27
LVQ3 5:46571Touchdown22–27
NOQ3 3:20517Punt22–27
LVQ3 2:0130Punt22–27
NOQ3 1:36922Turnover22–27
LVQ4 12:55655Touchdown28–27
NOQ4 9:2134Turnover28–27
LVQ4 7:4834Touchdown35–27
NOQ4 6:22944Turnover35–27
LVQ4 2:1548Punt35–27
NOQ4 1:38415Turnover35–27
LVQ4 0:5300End of half35–27

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins22/3324830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ashton Jeanty19562.90
Mike Washington Jr.55410.81
Kirk Cousins331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brock Bowers10131161
Tre Tucker44430
Ashton Jeanty33370
Michael Mayer33321
Jalen Nailor13160
Cody White1341
Malik Benson0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Shough29/4225541

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne13574.40
Alvin Kamara9364.00
Tyler Shough13636.00
Kendre Miller4143.50
CJ Donaldson155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Olave9131070
Juwan Johnson88532
Devaughn Vele36390
Noah Fant44332
Travis Etienne22130
Alvin Kamara1150
Kendre Miller2350
Bryce Lance0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.9%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.32
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.54