Closing spread
PHI -4.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-5.9est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.056
- 43.8%Success rate43.6%
- +0.039EPA / dropback-0.002
- -0.055EPA / rush-0.150
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.4%
- -1.08CPOE+1.59
- 41.3%Third-down rate37.4%
- 50.9%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
- 1.73Points / drive1.64
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 9–7 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. SF are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 23/36 | 278 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correll Buckhalter | 18 | 93 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Lorenzo Booker | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correll Buckhalter | 7 | 1 | 85 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 17/30 | 199 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 19 | 101 | 5.3 | 1 |
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 3 | 31 | 10.3 | 0 |
| DeShaun Foster | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | -10 | -10.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
33.6%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.29
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-5.09
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-5.89