Closing spread
PHI -4.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-5.9est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.056
- 43.8%Success rate43.6%
- +0.039EPA / dropback-0.002
- -0.055EPA / rush-0.150
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.4%
- -1.08CPOE+1.59
- 41.3%Third-down rate37.4%
- 50.9%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
- 1.73Points / drive1.64
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 9–7 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. SF are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PHI–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 13:54 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| PHI | Q1 12:34 | 7 | 37 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| SF | Q1 9:08 | 8 | 54 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| PHI | Q1 4:25 | 10 | 78 | Touchdown | 14–6 |
| SF | Q2 14:06 | 8 | 35 | Punt | 14–6 |
| PHI | Q2 7:44 | 7 | 63 | Field goal | 17–6 |
| SF | Q2 4:30 | 9 | 47 | Field goal | 17–9 |
| PHI | Q2 0:29 | 4 | 44 | Opp touchdown | 17–16 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 78 | Touchdown | 17–23 |
| PHI | Q3 11:14 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 17–23 |
| SF | Q3 9:14 | 10 | 90 | Field goal | 17–26 |
| PHI | Q3 3:01 | 6 | 57 | Turnover | 17–26 |
| SF | Q3 0:22 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 17–26 |
| PHI | Q4 14:22 | 5 | 41 | Touchdown | 24–26 |
| SF | Q4 11:38 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 24–26 |
| PHI | Q4 10:34 | 5 | 31 | Field goal | 27–26 |
| SF | Q4 7:46 | 3 | -8 | Turnover | 27–26 |
| PHI | Q4 6:09 | 3 | 0 | Field goal | 30–26 |
| SF | Q4 5:14 | 4 | 6 | Turnover | 30–26 |
| PHI | Q4 3:11 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 33–26 |
| SF | Q4 1:10 | 2 | 25 | Opp touchdown | 40–26 |
| SF | Q4 0:38 | 2 | -9 | End of half | 40–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 23/36 | 278 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correll Buckhalter | 18 | 93 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Lorenzo Booker | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correll Buckhalter | 7 | 1 | 85 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 17/30 | 199 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 19 | 101 | 5.3 | 1 |
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 3 | 31 | 10.3 | 0 |
| DeShaun Foster | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | -10 | -10.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
33.6%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.29
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-5.09
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-5.89