2008 · Week 6
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 2mph
Closing spread
WAS -12
Total
44
Model margin
+1.5est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
1.1%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. WAS are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–WAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 11:34 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| WAS | Q1 10:50 | 1 | 3 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 10:45 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–7 |
| WAS | Q1 9:46 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 8:28 | 9 | 39 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| WAS | Q1 4:01 | 6 | 54 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| LA | Q1 0:58 | 7 | 28 | Punt | 3–7 |
| WAS | Q2 12:24 | 10 | 46 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| LA | Q2 8:53 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–7 |
| WAS | Q2 7:30 | 7 | 34 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LA | Q2 3:38 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–7 |
| WAS | Q2 2:02 | 7 | 52 | Opp touchdown | 10–7 |
| WAS | Q2 0:09 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–7 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 56 | Field goal | 13–7 |
| WAS | Q3 8:21 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 13–7 |
| LA | Q3 5:56 | 3 | -13 | Punt | 13–7 |
| WAS | Q3 4:36 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 13–7 |
| LA | Q3 2:35 | 3 | 11 | Field goal | 16–7 |
| WAS | Q3 0:25 | 8 | 64 | Field goal | 16–10 |
| LA | Q4 10:39 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 16–10 |
| WAS | Q4 8:18 | 10 | 78 | Touchdown | 16–17 |
| LA | Q4 3:47 | 7 | 61 | Field goal | 19–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 18/26 | 208 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 21 | 129 | 6.1 | 2 |
| Ladell Betts | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Rock Cartwright | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.41
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.52
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.