2008 · Week 6
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 2mph
Closing spread
WAS -12
Total
44
Model margin
+1.5est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
1.1%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. WAS are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 18/26 | 208 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 21 | 129 | 6.1 | 2 |
| Ladell Betts | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Rock Cartwright | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.41
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.52
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.