Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
35.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play+0.084
- 40.6%Success rate46.3%
- -0.007EPA / dropback+0.181
- -0.027EPA / rush-0.039
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.6%
- -0.33CPOE+4.74
- 41.3%Third-down rate37.1%
- 50.4%Red-zone TD rate69.4%
- 1.61Points / drive1.69
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–7 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. MIA are 6-13 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 49 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| BAL | Q1 8:23 | 13 | 48 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| MIA | Q1 1:31 | 8 | 29 | Punt | 3–3 |
| BAL | Q2 12:25 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 3–3 |
| MIA | Q2 10:48 | 5 | 28 | Opp touchdown | 10–3 |
| MIA | Q2 8:44 | 7 | 44 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| BAL | Q2 4:31 | 11 | 72 | Touchdown | 17–6 |
| MIA | Q2 0:30 | 3 | -6 | End of half | 17–6 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 67 | Field goal | 20–6 |
| MIA | Q3 8:32 | 6 | 74 | Touchdown | 20–13 |
| BAL | Q3 4:56 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 20–13 |
| MIA | Q3 2:31 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 20–13 |
| BAL | Q4 14:50 | 5 | 68 | Turnover | 20–13 |
| MIA | Q4 12:43 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 20–13 |
| BAL | Q4 11:05 | 9 | 57 | Touchdown | 27–13 |
| MIA | Q4 6:28 | 7 | 48 | Turnover on downs | 27–13 |
| BAL | Q4 4:37 | 8 | 16 | Punt | 27–13 |
| MIA | Q4 1:01 | 4 | 60 | End of half | 27–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 17/23 | 232 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 19 | 105 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Ray Rice | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 24/35 | 295 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 13 | 27 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Cobbs | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.05