Closing spread
DAL -9
Total
45
Model margin
+7.9est.
STL perspective
Push chance
0.7%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DAL lead 8–5 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.2 points. STL are 5-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 17/34 | 234 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 18 | 100 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Tashard Choice | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Patrick Crayton | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
0.66%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
69.6%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.01
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+4.40
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.90
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.