Closing spread
CHI -3
Total
38
Model margin
-0.4est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.039EPA / play-0.095
- 40.9%Success rate39.3%
- +0.001EPA / dropback-0.083
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.111
- 9.0%Explosive rate7.2%
- -2.18CPOE-3.00
- 39.7%Third-down rate35.1%
- 53.5%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 1.59Points / drive1.70
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. CHI are 30-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 25/40 | 298 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 22 | 121 | 5.5 | 2 |
| Chester Taylor | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 1 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 21/32 | 283 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 20 | 56 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Rashied Davis | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.0%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.39