Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.120EPA / play+0.066
- 48.7%Success rate42.5%
- +0.213EPA / dropback+0.073
- -0.043EPA / rush+0.059
- 9.2%Explosive rate11.3%
- +2.69CPOE-1.27
- 49.2%Third-down rate40.0%
- 65.5%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 2.42Points / drive1.98
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 45 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NO | Q1 9:11 | 8 | 32 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CAR | Q1 5:56 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NO | Q1 4:18 | 9 | 63 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| CAR | Q2 14:58 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–3 |
| NO | Q2 13:14 | 4 | 12 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| CAR | Q2 12:05 | 4 | 40 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| NO | Q2 9:58 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 7–10 |
| CAR | Q2 6:22 | 5 | 31 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| NO | Q2 3:28 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 7–13 |
| CAR | Q2 0:58 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–13 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–13 |
| CAR | Q3 13:55 | 3 | 63 | Touchdown | 7–20 |
| NO | Q3 12:39 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 7–20 |
| CAR | Q3 9:25 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–20 |
| NO | Q3 7:42 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 7–20 |
| CAR | Q3 6:53 | 6 | 18 | Touchdown | 7–27 |
| NO | Q3 3:58 | 5 | 34 | Turnover on downs | 7–27 |
| CAR | Q3 2:14 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 7–27 |
| NO | Q4 14:47 | 8 | 78 | Turnover on downs | 7–27 |
| CAR | Q4 11:27 | 15 | 88 | Field goal | 7–30 |
| NO | Q4 1:57 | 7 | 56 | End of half | 7–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 21/39 | 231 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 9 | 55 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 9 | 47 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 14/22 | 195 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 17 | 68 | 4.0 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 18 | 66 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
48.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.84
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.65