Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
41
Model margin
+2.2est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 12–8 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. OAK are 10-8-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 43 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 11:41 | 3 | 13 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 9:36 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 8:05 | 6 | 33 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 4:00 | 5 | 10 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| NYJ | Q1 1:49 | 13 | 86 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| LV | Q2 9:01 | 10 | 43 | Missed field goal | 3–3 |
| NYJ | Q2 4:04 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LV | Q2 1:40 | 6 | 9 | End of half | 3–3 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| NYJ | Q3 9:35 | 5 | 42 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LV | Q3 6:28 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–10 |
| NYJ | Q3 5:06 | 6 | 35 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LV | Q3 1:35 | 7 | 44 | Punt | 3–10 |
| NYJ | Q4 13:25 | 9 | 87 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| LV | Q4 8:00 | 10 | 62 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| NYJ | Q4 2:56 | 3 | -8 | Turnover | 10–13 |
| LV | Q4 1:55 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 10–13 |
| NYJ | Q4 1:24 | 7 | 56 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| LV | Q4 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–13 |
| NYJ | OT | 6 | 19 | Punt | 13–13 |
| LV | OT | 3 | 4 | Punt | 13–13 |
| NYJ | OT | 3 | 6 | Punt | 13–13 |
| LV | OT | 3 | 1 | Punt | 13–13 |
| NYJ | OT | 5 | 20 | Punt | 13–13 |
| LV | OT | 5 | 42 | Field goal | 13–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 21/38 | 197 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 24 | 159 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 4 | 59 | 14.8 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.18
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.