Closing spread
PIT -9
Total
36.5
Model margin
-1.3est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.031EPA / play-0.172
- 42.9%Success rate38.0%
- +0.022EPA / dropback-0.150
- -0.103EPA / rush-0.208
- 7.8%Explosive rate5.1%
- +0.13CPOE-3.29
- 41.3%Third-down rate35.3%
- 54.8%Red-zone TD rate45.7%
- 1.61Points / drive0.93
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. CIN are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 17/28 | 216 | 2 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 3/3 | 34 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mewelde Moore | 20 | 120 | 6.0 | 2 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Gary Russell | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 21/35 | 164 | 1 | 0 |
| Jordan Palmer | 3/4 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.6%
Expected total
39.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.21
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-1.29