Closing spread
PIT -9
Total
36.5
Model margin
-1.3est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.031EPA / play-0.172
- 42.9%Success rate38.0%
- +0.022EPA / dropback-0.150
- -0.103EPA / rush-0.208
- 7.8%Explosive rate5.1%
- +0.13CPOE-3.29
- 41.3%Third-down rate35.3%
- 54.8%Red-zone TD rate45.7%
- 1.61Points / drive0.93
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 41–16 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 83 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| CIN | Q1 9:56 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–0 |
| PIT | Q1 8:12 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CIN | Q1 4:57 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| PIT | Q1 3:17 | 7 | 27 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| CIN | Q1 0:42 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 10–0 |
| PIT | Q2 14:38 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–0 |
| CIN | Q2 12:44 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–0 |
| PIT | Q2 11:24 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–0 |
| CIN | Q2 9:40 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–0 |
| PIT | Q2 8:33 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 10–0 |
| CIN | Q2 5:24 | 15 | 102 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| PIT | Q2 0:36 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–7 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 7 | Punt | 10–7 |
| PIT | Q3 11:16 | 6 | 55 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| CIN | Q3 8:29 | 11 | 49 | Field goal | 17–10 |
| PIT | Q3 2:38 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–10 |
| CIN | Q3 0:32 | 10 | 31 | Punt | 17–10 |
| PIT | Q4 11:10 | 6 | 91 | Touchdown | 24–10 |
| CIN | Q4 8:17 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 24–10 |
| PIT | Q4 6:53 | 4 | 14 | Touchdown | 31–10 |
| CIN | Q4 5:17 | 3 | -9 | Turnover | 31–10 |
| PIT | Q4 4:50 | 6 | 34 | Touchdown | 38–10 |
| CIN | Q4 1:54 | 6 | 22 | End of half | 38–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 17/28 | 216 | 2 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 3/3 | 34 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mewelde Moore | 20 | 120 | 6.0 | 2 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Gary Russell | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 21/35 | 164 | 1 | 0 |
| Jordan Palmer | 3/4 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.6%
Expected total
39.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.21
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-1.29