2007 · Week 1
Final
Qwest Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 67°F · wind 12mph
Closing spread
SEA -6
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play+0.006
- 41.9%Success rate45.1%
- +0.063EPA / dropback+0.107
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.158
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.8%
- +2.62CPOE+2.40
- 39.3%Third-down rate35.7%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.64Points / drive1.77
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 7–5 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.3 points. SEA are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 20 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 13:23 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 12:31 | 5 | 55 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q1 8:56 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 3–0 |
| TB | Q1 5:56 | 10 | 61 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| SEA | Q2 15:00 | 9 | 49 | Punt | 6–0 |
| TB | Q2 9:12 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 6–0 |
| SEA | Q2 6:42 | 10 | 74 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| TB | Q2 2:39 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 6–3 |
| SEA | Q2 1:35 | 3 | 14 | Touchdown | 6–10 |
| TB | Q2 0:50 | 3 | 31 | End of half | 6–10 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 6–10 |
| TB | Q3 12:53 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 6–10 |
| SEA | Q3 11:57 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 6–10 |
| TB | Q3 10:13 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 6–10 |
| SEA | Q3 8:56 | 1 | 21 | Turnover | 6–10 |
| TB | Q3 8:44 | 9 | 19 | Punt | 6–10 |
| SEA | Q3 3:30 | 8 | 47 | Field goal | 6–13 |
| TB | Q4 14:09 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 6–13 |
| SEA | Q4 12:08 | 7 | 70 | Touchdown | 6–20 |
| TB | Q4 7:55 | 11 | 51 | Turnover | 6–20 |
| SEA | Q4 3:38 | 6 | 30 | Punt | 6–20 |
| TB | Q4 0:18 | 3 | 9 | End of half | 6–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 19/27 | 201 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke McCown | 1/4 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 12 | 60 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Luke McCown | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Michael Clayton | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 17/24 | 222 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 27 | 105 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Maurice Morris | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.59
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.16