2007 · Week 1

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jeff Garcia

6·20

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

Qwest Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 67°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

SEA -6

Total

40.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.004EPA / play+0.006
  • 41.9%Success rate45.1%
  • +0.063EPA / dropback+0.107
  • -0.100EPA / rush-0.158
  • 8.8%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +2.62CPOE+2.40
  • 39.3%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 53.0%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 1.64Points / drive1.77
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 7–5 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.3 points. SEA are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5TB @ SEA38–35TB
2022 · W10SEA @ TB16–21TB
2019 · W9TB @ SEA34–40SEA
2016 · W12SEA @ TB5–14TB
2013 · W9TB @ SEA24–27SEA
2010 · W16SEA @ TB15–38TB
2009 · W15TB @ SEA24–7TB
2008 · W7SEA @ TB10–20TB

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Garcia19/2720100
Luke McCown1/4900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cadillac Williams12605.00
Earnest Graham4112.80
Luke McCown199.00
Michael Pittman362.00
Jeff Garcia133.00
Joey Galloway111.00
Michael Clayton100.00

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck17/2422210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Alexander271053.91
Maurice Morris3155.00
Matt Hasselbeck273.50
Nate Burleson133.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

3.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.5%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.59
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.16