Closing spread
NYG -10
Total
46.5
Model margin
+8.7est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
3.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.056EPA / play+0.093
- 43.6%Success rate47.3%
- -0.002EPA / dropback+0.129
- -0.150EPA / rush+0.050
- 8.4%Explosive rate10.1%
- +1.59CPOE+0.84
- 37.4%Third-down rate43.7%
- 53.3%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
- 1.64Points / drive2.09
- 3.5%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 8–7 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. NYG are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 16/28 | 256 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 11 | 11 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 16/31 | 161 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 17 | 69 | 4.1 | 2 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
71.5%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.23
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+5.09
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+8.72