Closing spread
TEN -9
Total
35
Model margin
+1.2est.
KC perspective
Push chance
1.0%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.003EPA / play-0.051
- 41.7%Success rate42.2%
- +0.037EPA / dropback-0.019
- -0.044EPA / rush-0.107
- 9.0%Explosive rate7.7%
- -2.44CPOE-3.09
- 36.7%Third-down rate37.7%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
- 1.83Points / drive1.48
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. KC are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 11/18 | 123 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 18 | 168 | 9.3 | 1 |
| LenDale White | 17 | 149 | 8.8 | 3 |
| Quinton Ganther | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 9/16 | 96 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 5/11 | 76 | 0 | 0 |
| Brodie Croyle | 9/10 | 63 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Thigpen | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Kolby Smith | 10 | 20 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Damon Huard | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.71
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.19