Closing spread
KC -6
Total
43
Model margin
+3.0est.
KC perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.037EPA / play+0.012
- 45.5%Success rate42.7%
- +0.103EPA / dropback+0.084
- -0.049EPA / rush-0.105
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.5%
- +1.12CPOE+2.15
- 45.6%Third-down rate38.7%
- 75.2%Red-zone TD rate51.9%
- 1.72Points / drive1.88
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. KC are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 19/33 | 241 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 18 | 89 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 9 | 58 | 6.4 | 2 |
| Jalston Fowler | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rishard Matthews | 4 | 10 | 105 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 6 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 5 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 15/28 | 163 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Ware | 18 | 69 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 68 | 68.0 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Charcandrick West | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 6 | 8 | 82 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 3 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.02
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.00