2014 · Week 1

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Jake Locker

26·10

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

KC -3

Total

45.5

Model margin

+6.9est.

KC perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapChiefs
  • -0.122EPA / play+0.026
  • 39.5%Success rate42.6%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback+0.093
  • -0.190EPA / rush-0.081
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -2.82CPOE-1.58
  • 29.7%Third-down rate40.0%
  • 50.7%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
  • 1.18Points / drive1.99
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 9–5 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. KC are 5-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16KC @ TEN9–26TEN
2022 · W9TEN @ KC17–20KC
2021 · W7KC @ TEN3–27TEN
2019 · playoffsTEN @ KC24–35KC
2019 · W10KC @ TEN32–35TEN
2017 · playoffsTEN @ KC22–21TEN
2016 · W15TEN @ KC19–17TEN
2013 · W5KC @ TEN26–17KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–KC
KCQ1 15:00627Punt0–0
TENQ1 11:09526Punt0–0
KCQ1 8:4237Punt0–0
TENQ1 7:09620Punt0–0
KCQ1 2:53769Field goal0–3
TENQ2 13:3532Punt0–3
KCQ2 12:28531Missed field goal0–3
TENQ2 10:011167Touchdown7–3
KCQ2 3:3165Punt7–3
TENQ2 1:42622Punt7–3
KCQ2 0:3810Turnover7–3
TENQ2 0:28324Field goal10–3
KCQ2 0:0300End of half10–3
TENQ3 15:00980Touchdown17–3
KCQ3 10:2656Punt17–3
TENQ3 8:0333Punt17–3
KCQ3 6:4110Turnover17–3
TENQ3 6:31119Field goal17–3
TENQ3 5:52113Field goal17–3
TENQ3 5:24613Field goal20–3
KCQ3 2:46524Turnover on downs20–3
TENQ3 1:26831Field goal23–3
KCQ4 12:391263Touchdown23–10
TENQ4 10:091051Field goal26–10
KCQ4 4:503-5Punt26–10
TENQ4 3:53537Punt26–10
KCQ4 1:47418Turnover26–10
TENQ4 1:0200End of half26–10

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Locker22/3326620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shonn Greene15714.70
Dexter McCluster9293.20
Bishop Sankey6254.20
Leon Washington22311.50
Jake Locker6142.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Hunter38630
Nate Washington46590
Kendall Wright67461
Delanie Walker34371
Taylor Thompson22240
Dexter McCluster12170
Leon Washington22110
Derek Hagan1190

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith19/3520213

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alex Smith6366.00
Jamaal Charles7192.70
Cyrus Gray252.50
Knile Davis133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donnie Avery713840
Travis Kelce35490
Anthony Fasano36291
Frankie Hammond12220
Jamaal Charles44150
Knile Davis1130
Junior Hemingway0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.1%5.9%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

7.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.2%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.54
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.88
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.91