Closing spread
KC -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+6.9est.
KC perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.122EPA / play+0.026
- 39.5%Success rate42.6%
- -0.086EPA / dropback+0.093
- -0.190EPA / rush-0.081
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.2%
- -2.82CPOE-1.58
- 29.7%Third-down rate40.0%
- 50.7%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 1.18Points / drive1.99
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. KC are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Locker | 22/33 | 266 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 15 | 71 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Bishop Sankey | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Jake Locker | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Hunter | 3 | 8 | 63 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 4 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 6 | 7 | 46 | 1 |
| Delanie Walker | 3 | 4 | 37 | 1 |
| Taylor Thompson | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Derek Hagan | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 19/35 | 202 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Cyrus Gray | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donnie Avery | 7 | 13 | 84 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 3 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 3 | 6 | 29 | 1 |
| Frankie Hammond | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 4 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Junior Hemingway | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.2%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.54
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.88
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.91