Closing spread
KC -8.5
Total
44
Model margin
+3.5est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.069EPA / play+0.082
- 42.6%Success rate44.2%
- -0.057EPA / dropback+0.170
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.071
- 7.7%Explosive rate9.8%
- +0.43CPOE+4.58
- 36.0%Third-down rate39.2%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.73Points / drive2.21
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. KC are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 19/31 | 205 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 23 | 156 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Marcus Mariota | 8 | 46 | 5.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 6 | 8 | 74 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 4 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 2 | 5 | 21 | 1 |
| Rishard Matthews | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| Taywan Taylor | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 24/33 | 264 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 7 | 11 | 87 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 4 | 66 | 1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 4 | 4 | 57 | 1 |
| Albert Wilson | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Orson Charles | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.72
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.46