2017 · WC

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

22·21

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 33°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

KC -8.5

Total

44

Model margin

+3.5est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapChiefs
  • -0.069EPA / play+0.082
  • 42.6%Success rate44.2%
  • -0.057EPA / dropback+0.170
  • -0.086EPA / rush-0.071
  • 7.7%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +0.43CPOE+4.58
  • 36.0%Third-down rate39.2%
  • 61.4%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
  • 1.73Points / drive2.21
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 9–5 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. KC are 5-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16KC @ TEN9–26TEN
2022 · W9TEN @ KC17–20KC
2021 · W7KC @ TEN3–27TEN
2019 · playoffsTEN @ KC24–35KC
2019 · W10KC @ TEN32–35TEN
2016 · W15TEN @ KC19–17TEN
2014 · W1TEN @ KC26–10TEN
2013 · W5KC @ TEN26–17KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–KC
KCQ1 15:00622Punt0–0
TENQ1 11:4637Punt0–0
KCQ1 10:33681Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 7:37315Punt0–7
KCQ1 5:39676Touchdown0–14
TENQ1 2:15625Punt0–14
KCQ2 13:59510Punt0–14
TENQ2 10:29637Turnover0–14
KCQ2 7:3731Punt0–14
TENQ2 5:57843Field goal3–14
KCQ2 1:551074Touchdown3–21
TENQ2 0:0300End of half3–21
TENQ3 15:0016100Touchdown10–21
KCQ3 6:3138Punt10–21
KCQ3 4:343-2Missed field goal10–21
TENQ3 2:25667Touchdown16–21
KCQ4 14:08521Punt16–21
TENQ4 11:151175Touchdown22–21
KCQ4 6:06934Turnover on downs22–21
TENQ4 2:09434End of half22–21

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota19/3120521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry231566.81
Marcus Mariota8465.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Delanie Walker68740
Derrick Henry22350
Corey Davis47350
Eric Decker25211
Rishard Matthews12150
Jonnu Smith24150
Marcus Mariota1161
Taywan Taylor1140

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith24/3326420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt11423.81
Tyreek Hill11414.00
Alex Smith4133.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill711870
Travis Kelce44661
Demarcus Robinson44571
Albert Wilson24260
Demetrius Harris23220
Kareem Hunt3350
Charcandrick West2210
Orson Charles0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

1.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.3%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.72
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.46