Closing spread
KC -4
Total
57.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.140EPA / play+0.025
- 51.1%Success rate44.7%
- +0.216EPA / dropback+0.092
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.054
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.8%
- +2.81CPOE+2.33
- 52.1%Third-down rate43.8%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 2.66Points / drive2.15
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. TEN are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 20/35 | 206 | 0 | 1 |
| Chad Henne | 11/16 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Pringle | 5 | 6 | 73 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 12 | 65 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 6 | 9 | 49 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Marcus Kemp | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Derrick Gore | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 21/27 | 270 | 1 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | 1/1 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 29 | 86 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Darrynton Evans | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Marcus Johnson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Logan Woodside | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 8 | 9 | 133 | 1 |
| Julio Jones | 2 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 2 | 3 | 27 | 1 |
| Josh Reynolds | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Darrynton Evans | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Marcus Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.8%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.60
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.03