2021 · Week 7

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

3·27

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

KC -4

Total

57.5

Model margin

+1.0est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

2.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapTitans
  • +0.140EPA / play+0.025
  • 51.1%Success rate44.7%
  • +0.216EPA / dropback+0.092
  • -0.024EPA / rush-0.054
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +2.81CPOE+2.33
  • 52.1%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 60.0%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
  • 2.66Points / drive2.15
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 9–5 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. TEN are 9-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16KC @ TEN9–26TEN
2022 · W9TEN @ KC17–20KC
2019 · playoffsTEN @ KC24–35KC
2019 · W10KC @ TEN32–35TEN
2017 · playoffsTEN @ KC22–21TEN
2016 · W15TEN @ KC19–17TEN
2014 · W1TEN @ KC26–10TEN
2013 · W5KC @ TEN26–17KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–TEN
TENQ1 15:00953Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 10:50725Punt0–7
TENQ1 6:1610100Touchdown0–14
KCQ1 0:42410Punt0–14
TENQ2 14:461165Field goal0–17
KCQ2 8:0710Turnover0–17
TENQ2 7:56941Touchdown0–24
KCQ2 2:48533Turnover0–24
TENQ2 1:48618Field goal0–27
KCQ2 0:0300End of half0–27
KCQ3 15:00971Field goal3–27
TENQ3 11:001373Turnover3–27
KCQ3 3:39951Missed field goal3–27
TENQ3 0:1135Punt3–27
KCQ4 13:301859Turnover on downs3–27
TENQ4 8:19515Punt3–27
KCQ4 4:241886Turnover3–27
TENQ4 0:0800End of half3–27

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes20/3520601
Chad Henne11/168200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Patrick Mahomes6355.80
Darrel Williams5204.00
Tyreek Hill11818.00
Chad Henne144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Byron Pringle56730
Travis Kelce712650
Tyreek Hill69490
Darrel Williams34300
Mecole Hardman45280
Jerick McKinnon24170
Marcus Kemp1180
Demarcus Robinson1470
Derrick Gore1170
Noah Gray1140
Josh Gordon0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill21/2727011
Derrick Henry1/1510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry29863.00
Darrynton Evans273.50
Ryan Tannehill263.01
Marcus Johnson155.00
Logan Woodside1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown891331
Julio Jones24380
MyCole Pruitt23271
Josh Reynolds33230
Derrick Henry22160
Darrynton Evans22110
Jeremy McNichols11100
Anthony Firkser1190
Geoff Swaim1180
Marcus Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -44.2%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.8%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.60
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.03