Closing spread
KC -5
Total
49
Model margin
+1.5est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.135EPA / play+0.063
- 47.0%Success rate45.7%
- +0.247EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.094EPA / rush-0.046
- 8.2%Explosive rate11.6%
- +1.86CPOE+3.45
- 48.7%Third-down rate39.4%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
- 2.59Points / drive1.99
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. TEN are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 36/50 | 446 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Williams | 19 | 77 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Darwin Thompson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 11 | 19 | 157 | 1 |
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 7 | 75 | 1 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 1 | 63 | 1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 4 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 5 | 9 | 39 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 5 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Darwin Thompson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Deon Yelder | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 13/19 | 181 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 23 | 188 | 8.2 | 2 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 37 | 12.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 1 | 52 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 3 | 4 | 36 | 1 |
| Jonnu Smith | 4 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 1 | 1 | 23 | 1 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.25
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.49