2019 · Week 10

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

32·35

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

KC -5

Total

49

Model margin

+1.5est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapTitans
  • +0.135EPA / play+0.063
  • 47.0%Success rate45.7%
  • +0.247EPA / dropback+0.143
  • -0.094EPA / rush-0.046
  • 8.2%Explosive rate11.6%
  • +1.86CPOE+3.45
  • 48.7%Third-down rate39.4%
  • 68.1%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
  • 2.59Points / drive1.99
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 9–5 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. TEN are 9-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16KC @ TEN9–26TEN
2022 · W9TEN @ KC17–20KC
2021 · W7KC @ TEN3–27TEN
2019 · playoffsTEN @ KC24–35KC
2017 · playoffsTEN @ KC22–21TEN
2016 · W15TEN @ KC19–17TEN
2014 · W1TEN @ KC26–10TEN
2013 · W5KC @ TEN26–17KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–TEN
KCQ1 15:001284Touchdown7–0
TENQ1 9:193-5Turnover7–0
KCQ1 7:48638Field goal10–0
TENQ1 4:43621Punt10–0
KCQ1 0:48939Punt10–0
TENQ2 11:57473Touchdown10–7
KCQ2 10:23738Opp touchdown10–13
KCQ2 6:14952Field goal13–13
TENQ2 1:12525Punt13–13
KCQ2 0:1613End of half13–13
TENQ3 15:00423Punt13–13
KCQ3 12:341172Touchdown19–13
TENQ3 6:54274Touchdown19–20
KCQ3 5:581041Field goal22–20
TENQ3 1:58612Punt22–20
KCQ4 14:00579Touchdown29–20
TENQ4 11:541075Touchdown29–27
KCQ4 6:26653Field goal32–27
TENQ4 3:14512Turnover on downs32–27
KCQ4 1:4843Turnover on downs32–27
TENQ4 1:21461Touchdown32–35
KCQ4 0:23328Missed field goal32–35

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes36/5044630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Damien Williams19774.10
Sammy Watkins2126.00
Darrel Williams263.00
Tyreek Hill133.00
Darwin Thompson1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill11191571
Travis Kelce77751
Mecole Hardman11631
Demarcus Robinson45560
Sammy Watkins59390
Damien Williams55320
Darrel Williams1190
Darwin Thompson1180
Deon Yelder1170

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill13/1918120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry231888.22
Ryan Tannehill33712.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kalif Raymond11520
Anthony Firkser34361
Jonnu Smith46300
Adam Humphries11231
Tajae Sharpe11200
A.J. Brown14170
Derrick Henry2230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

1.78%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.1%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.25
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.49