2019 · CON

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

24·35

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · astroturf

Closing spread

KC -7.5

Total

51

Model margin

+1.9est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapChiefs
  • +0.063EPA / play+0.135
  • 45.7%Success rate47.0%
  • +0.143EPA / dropback+0.247
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.094
  • 11.6%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +3.45CPOE+1.86
  • 39.4%Third-down rate48.7%
  • 74.8%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
  • 1.99Points / drive2.59
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 9–5 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. KC are 5-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16KC @ TEN9–26TEN
2022 · W9TEN @ KC17–20KC
2021 · W7KC @ TEN3–27TEN
2019 · W10KC @ TEN32–35TEN
2017 · playoffsTEN @ KC22–21TEN
2016 · W15TEN @ KC19–17TEN
2014 · W1TEN @ KC26–10TEN
2013 · W5KC @ TEN26–17KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–KC
TENQ1 15:00758Field goal3–0
KCQ1 11:2930Punt3–0
TENQ1 9:59948Touchdown10–0
KCQ1 5:521169Touchdown10–7
TENQ1 0:461774Touchdown17–7
KCQ2 6:39658Touchdown17–14
TENQ2 4:0337Punt17–14
KCQ2 1:51986Touchdown17–21
TENQ2 0:1100End of half17–21
KCQ3 15:001037Punt17–21
TENQ3 11:01821Punt17–21
KCQ3 6:581373Touchdown17–28
TENQ4 14:50410Punt17–28
KCQ4 11:54788Touchdown17–35
TENQ4 7:33880Touchdown24–35
KCQ4 4:187-4Punt24–35
TENQ4 2:085-2Turnover on downs24–35
KCQ4 1:2000End of half24–35

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill21/3120920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry19693.61
Ryan Tannehill3113.70
Marcus Mariota155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Davis58650
A.J. Brown36510
Jonnu Smith34380
Adam Humphries45250
Anthony Firkser12221
MyCole Pruitt1190
Dion Lewis1160
Tajae Sharpe0100
Derrick Henry22-80

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes23/3529430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Patrick Mahomes8536.61
Damien Williams17452.61
Tyreek Hill177.00
Darwin Thompson177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sammy Watkins7101141
Tyreek Hill57672
Damien Williams56440
Demarcus Robinson22310
Travis Kelce34300
Mecole Hardman1180
Darwin Thompson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.2%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.25
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.91