Closing spread
KC -7.5
Total
51
Model margin
+1.9est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play+0.135
- 45.7%Success rate47.0%
- +0.143EPA / dropback+0.247
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.094
- 11.6%Explosive rate8.2%
- +3.45CPOE+1.86
- 39.4%Third-down rate48.7%
- 74.8%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 1.99Points / drive2.59
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. KC are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 21/31 | 209 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 19 | 69 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Davis | 5 | 8 | 65 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 3 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 4 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 2 | 22 | 1 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 23/35 | 294 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 8 | 53 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Damien Williams | 17 | 45 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Darwin Thompson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Watkins | 7 | 10 | 114 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 5 | 7 | 67 | 2 |
| Damien Williams | 5 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Darwin Thompson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.25
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.91