Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
-2.6est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play-0.148
- 44.5%Success rate37.9%
- +0.093EPA / dropback-0.165
- -0.060EPA / rush-0.117
- 7.2%Explosive rate7.3%
- -1.09CPOE-3.50
- 39.4%Third-down rate32.0%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 2.23Points / drive1.36
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. TEN are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Oladokun | 11/16 | 111 | 0 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 3/8 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Chris Oladokun | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 6 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 2 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Brashard Smith | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 21/28 | 228 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 21 | 102 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Cam Ward | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Julius Chestnut | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Kalel Mullings | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elic Ayomanor | 3 | 4 | 58 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 5 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 6 | 8 | 44 | 1 |
| Chimere Dike | 3 | 5 | 40 | 1 |
| Van Jefferson | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Gunnar Helm | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.0%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.34
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.64