2025 · Week 16

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Gardner Minshew

9·26

Titans

Tennessee

QB Cam Ward

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

KC -3.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

-2.6est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapTitans
  • +0.042EPA / play-0.148
  • 44.5%Success rate37.9%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback-0.165
  • -0.060EPA / rush-0.117
  • 7.2%Explosive rate7.3%
  • -1.09CPOE-3.50
  • 39.4%Third-down rate32.0%
  • 54.7%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
  • 2.23Points / drive1.36
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 9–5 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. TEN are 9-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W9TEN @ KC17–20KC
2021 · W7KC @ TEN3–27TEN
2019 · playoffsTEN @ KC24–35KC
2019 · W10KC @ TEN32–35TEN
2017 · playoffsTEN @ KC22–21TEN
2016 · W15TEN @ KC19–17TEN
2014 · W1TEN @ KC26–10TEN
2013 · W5KC @ TEN26–17KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–TEN
KCQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
TENQ1 12:47524Turnover on downs0–0
KCQ1 9:5833Punt0–0
TENQ1 8:251047Punt0–0
KCQ1 2:20718Punt0–0
TENQ2 14:443-1Punt0–0
KCQ2 13:091-2Safety0–2
TENQ2 13:0635Punt0–2
KCQ2 11:39828Field goal3–2
TENQ2 7:401189Touchdown3–9
KCQ2 1:37645Field goal6–9
TENQ2 0:0600End of half6–9
TENQ3 15:00975Touchdown6–16
KCQ3 10:32542Missed field goal6–16
TENQ3 7:4249Turnover on downs6–16
KCQ3 6:22619Field goal9–16
TENQ3 3:001154Touchdown9–23
KCQ4 11:563-9Punt9–23
TENQ4 10:011472Field goal9–26
KCQ4 3:443-19Punt9–26
TENQ4 1:4714End of half9–26

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Oladokun11/1611100
Gardner Minshew3/81500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isiah Pacheco8344.30
Gardner Minshew188.00
Chris Oladokun273.50
Kareem Hunt320.70
Xavier Worthy100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Isiah Pacheco67410
Xavier Worthy23410
Marquise Brown33220
JuJu Smith-Schuster14120
Travis Kelce1460
Brashard Smith1140

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Ward21/2822820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard211024.90
Tyjae Spears13524.01
Cam Ward492.30
Julius Chestnut111.00
Kalel Mullings100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Elic Ayomanor34580
Tyjae Spears55530
Chig Okonkwo68441
Chimere Dike35401
Van Jefferson22240
Gunnar Helm2390

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%3.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.0%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.34
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.64