Closing spread
KC -14
Total
45
Model margin
+11.4est.
KC perspective
Push chance
3.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play+0.179
- 41.2%Success rate50.6%
- -0.034EPA / dropback+0.273
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.019
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.3%
- -0.94CPOE+3.02
- 37.1%Third-down rate49.4%
- 67.5%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
- 1.46Points / drive2.71
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. KC are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis | 5/16 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 17 | 115 | 6.8 | 2 |
| Malik Willis | 8 | 40 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Hassan Haskins | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chig Okonkwo | 1 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Hassan Haskins | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Hollister | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 43/68 | 446 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 6 | 63 | 10.5 | 1 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 10 | 17 | 106 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 10 | 12 | 88 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 6 | 9 | 79 | 1 |
| Noah Gray | 3 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 6 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 2 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
3.62%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
77.4%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.47
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+4.66
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+11.40