2022 · Week 9

Final / OT

Titans

Tennessee

QB Malik Willis

17·20

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

KC -14

Total

45

Model margin

+11.4est.

KC perspective

Push chance

3.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapChiefs
  • -0.066EPA / play+0.179
  • 41.2%Success rate50.6%
  • -0.034EPA / dropback+0.273
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.019
  • 8.9%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -0.94CPOE+3.02
  • 37.1%Third-down rate49.4%
  • 67.5%Red-zone TD rate71.2%
  • 1.46Points / drive2.71
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 9–5 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. KC are 5-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16KC @ TEN9–26TEN
2021 · W7KC @ TEN3–27TEN
2019 · playoffsTEN @ KC24–35KC
2019 · W10KC @ TEN32–35TEN
2017 · playoffsTEN @ KC22–21TEN
2016 · W15TEN @ KC19–17TEN
2014 · W1TEN @ KC26–10TEN
2013 · W5KC @ TEN26–17KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–KC
KCQ1 15:001784Field goal0–3
TENQ1 6:47448Punt0–3
KCQ1 4:25983Touchdown0–9
TENQ2 14:55870Touchdown7–9
KCQ2 10:48617Punt7–9
TENQ2 8:14579Touchdown14–9
KCQ2 5:243-4Punt14–9
TENQ2 3:55411Punt14–9
KCQ2 1:52742Punt14–9
TENQ2 0:1900End of half14–9
TENQ3 15:00412Punt14–9
KCQ3 12:33312Turnover14–9
TENQ3 11:2738Field goal17–9
KCQ3 9:581050Missed field goal17–9
TENQ3 5:1748Punt17–9
KCQ3 2:5348Punt17–9
TENQ3 0:4336Punt17–9
KCQ4 13:5631Punt17–9
TENQ4 12:5558Punt17–9
KCQ4 9:541593Touchdown17–17
TENQ4 2:563-4Punt17–17
KCQ4 1:47711Punt17–17
TENQ4 0:3530Punt17–17
KCQ4 0:05233End of half17–17
KCOT1369Field goal17–20
TENOT4-16Turnover on downs17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Malik Willis5/168000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry171156.82
Malik Willis8405.00
Dontrell Hilliard3124.00
Hassan Haskins155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chig Okonkwo13480
Austin Hooper23340
Hassan Haskins1120
Robert Woods0200
Chris Conley0100
Cody Hollister0100
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine0100
Dontrell Hilliard11-40

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes43/6844611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Patrick Mahomes66310.51
Clyde Edwards-Helaire451.30
Isiah Pacheco551.00
Jerick McKinnon341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce10171060
JuJu Smith-Schuster1012880
Mecole Hardman69791
Noah Gray33450
Jerick McKinnon68400
Justin Watson25370
Clyde Edwards-Helaire12140
Marquez Valdes-Scantling11120
Kadarius Toney22120
Isiah Pacheco1140
Skyy Moore0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +146.4%2.2%3.0%4.8%3.5%3.6%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

3.62%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

77.4%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.47
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.66
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+11.40