Closing spread
CAR -5
Total
43
Model margin
+3.5est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.052EPA / play+0.066
- 45.0%Success rate42.5%
- +0.144EPA / dropback+0.073
- -0.140EPA / rush+0.059
- 8.6%Explosive rate11.3%
- +5.02CPOE-1.27
- 43.3%Third-down rate40.0%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 2.12Points / drive1.98
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 14–7 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. CAR are 13-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 13:20 | 12 | 80 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| CAR | Q1 6:56 | 7 | 38 | Punt | 3–0 |
| ARI | Q1 2:55 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CAR | Q1 0:15 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–0 |
| ARI | Q2 13:41 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CAR | Q2 12:03 | 2 | -10 | Turnover | 9–0 |
| ARI | Q2 11:21 | 1 | 5 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| CAR | Q2 11:16 | 13 | 57 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| ARI | Q2 5:42 | 11 | 72 | Turnover on downs | 10–3 |
| CAR | Q2 1:06 | 7 | 28 | End of half | 10–3 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 64 | Touchdown | 17–3 |
| CAR | Q3 10:13 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| ARI | Q3 6:54 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 17–16 |
| CAR | Q3 6:15 | 1 | 18 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| ARI | Q3 6:10 | 11 | 78 | Touchdown | 23–17 |
| CAR | Q3 0:58 | 3 | 73 | Touchdown | 23–24 |
| ARI | Q3 0:02 | 8 | 58 | Turnover | 23–24 |
| CAR | Q4 11:38 | 4 | 14 | Field goal | 23–27 |
| ARI | Q4 9:09 | 8 | 35 | Punt | 23–27 |
| CAR | Q4 5:57 | 9 | 46 | End of half | 23–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 35/49 | 381 | 2 | 1 |
| J.J. Arrington | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | 30 | 30.0 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerame Tuman | 3 | 1 | 41 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 20/28 | 248 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 17 | 108 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.54
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+3.47