Closing spread
PHI -9.5
Total
45
Model margin
+5.5est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.066EPA / play+0.004
- 43.0%Success rate43.8%
- +0.161EPA / dropback+0.039
- -0.021EPA / rush-0.055
- 10.9%Explosive rate8.3%
- +0.99CPOE-1.08
- 43.3%Third-down rate41.3%
- 55.2%Red-zone TD rate50.9%
- 2.04Points / drive1.73
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. PHI are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 23/44 | 277 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 17 | 58 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jerious Norwood | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 19/34 | 253 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 22 | 167 | 7.6 | 2 |
| Donovan McNabb | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
3.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.5%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.96
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.45