Closing spread
PHI -9.5
Total
45
Model margin
+5.5est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.066EPA / play+0.004
- 43.0%Success rate43.8%
- +0.161EPA / dropback+0.039
- -0.021EPA / rush-0.055
- 10.9%Explosive rate8.3%
- +0.99CPOE-1.08
- 43.3%Third-down rate41.3%
- 55.2%Red-zone TD rate50.9%
- 2.04Points / drive1.73
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. PHI are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 34 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 11:16 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 8:51 | 6 | 8 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 6:05 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 4:37 | 7 | 27 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 1:06 | 5 | 40 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q2 13:27 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q2 12:30 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q2 10:53 | 6 | 76 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| PHI | Q2 8:56 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ATL | Q2 7:40 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–0 |
| PHI | Q2 6:18 | 9 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| ATL | Q2 2:25 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 7–7 |
| PHI | Q2 0:45 | 6 | 60 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| PHI | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 79 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| ATL | Q3 10:24 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 7–17 |
| PHI | Q3 7:33 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 7–17 |
| ATL | Q3 3:55 | 6 | 29 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| PHI | Q3 2:15 | 5 | 42 | Punt | 7–17 |
| ATL | Q3 0:10 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 7–17 |
| PHI | Q4 13:41 | 10 | 38 | Field goal | 7–20 |
| ATL | Q4 7:57 | 14 | 77 | Touchdown | 14–20 |
| PHI | Q4 3:55 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–20 |
| PHI | Q4 2:22 | 2 | 37 | Touchdown | 14–27 |
| ATL | Q4 1:51 | 7 | 42 | Turnover on downs | 14–27 |
| PHI | Q4 0:11 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 23/44 | 277 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 17 | 58 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jerious Norwood | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 19/34 | 253 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 22 | 167 | 7.6 | 2 |
| Donovan McNabb | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
3.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.5%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.96
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.45