2008 · Week 8

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

6·35

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

Reliant Stadium · open · grass

Closing spread

HOU -9

Total

45.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

1.2%est.

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapTexans
  • -0.172EPA / play+0.037
  • 38.0%Success rate45.3%
  • -0.150EPA / dropback+0.069
  • -0.208EPA / rush-0.012
  • 5.1%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -3.29CPOE+3.93
  • 35.3%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 45.7%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
  • 0.93Points / drive1.91
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 9–5 since 1999

Meetings average 39 points. HOU are 9-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W10HOU @ CIN30–27HOU
2020 · W16CIN @ HOU37–31CIN
2017 · W2HOU @ CIN13–9HOU
2016 · W16CIN @ HOU10–12HOU
2015 · W10HOU @ CIN10–6HOU
2014 · W12CIN @ HOU22–13CIN
2012 · playoffsCIN @ HOU13–19HOU
2011 · playoffsCIN @ HOU10–31HOU

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick20/3215502

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson13493.80
Ryan Fitzpatrick7426.00
T.J. Houshmandzadeh199.00
Kenny Watson155.00

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub24/2828030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steve Slaton15533.51
Ahman Green9414.60
Ryan Moats3175.70
Matt Schaub4-2-0.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

1.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.1%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.27
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.76