Closing spread
HOU -9
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.172EPA / play+0.037
- 38.0%Success rate45.3%
- -0.150EPA / dropback+0.069
- -0.208EPA / rush-0.012
- 5.1%Explosive rate9.6%
- -3.29CPOE+3.93
- 35.3%Third-down rate42.2%
- 45.7%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 0.93Points / drive1.91
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 38.1 points. HOU are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CIN–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q1 12:42 | 12 | 64 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| HOU | Q1 6:24 | 6 | 41 | Punt | 3–7 |
| CIN | Q1 1:46 | 9 | 43 | Punt | 3–7 |
| HOU | Q2 12:45 | 15 | 91 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| CIN | Q2 3:23 | 9 | 65 | Field goal | 6–14 |
| HOU | Q2 0:50 | 6 | 30 | End of half | 6–14 |
| HOU | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 84 | Touchdown | 6–21 |
| CIN | Q3 9:19 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 6–21 |
| HOU | Q3 7:51 | 3 | 53 | Touchdown | 6–28 |
| CIN | Q3 6:30 | 11 | 40 | Turnover | 6–28 |
| HOU | Q3 1:55 | 12 | 71 | Touchdown | 6–35 |
| CIN | Q4 9:54 | 3 | -2 | Turnover | 6–35 |
| HOU | Q4 8:30 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 6–35 |
| CIN | Q4 5:30 | 6 | 29 | Turnover | 6–35 |
| HOU | Q4 3:18 | 3 | 17 | End of half | 6–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 20/32 | 155 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 13 | 49 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 7 | 42 | 6.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 24/28 | 280 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Slaton | 15 | 53 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Ahman Green | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Ryan Moats | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.27
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.76