Closing spread
JAX -7
Total
42
Model margin
+5.0est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.155EPA / play-0.004
- 36.2%Success rate44.6%
- -0.205EPA / dropback+0.013
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.032
- 6.7%Explosive rate8.0%
- -11.69CPOE+3.08
- 33.5%Third-down rate41.7%
- 29.2%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
- 1.05Points / drive1.65
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 38.8 points. JAX are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 14/27 | 246 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 20 | 81 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Jason Wright | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braylon Edwards | 2 | 1 | 64 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 25/42 | 283 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 7 | 59 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 12 | 29 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Troy Williamson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
4.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.3%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.92
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.97